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Special elections indicate a Blue Tsunami and Trump’s impeachment are coming

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Special elections indicate a Blue Tsunami and Trumps impeachment are coming

For those who refuse to accept the likelihood that Donald Trump will be impeached following the November elections after the Democrats retake the House, a new report released yesterday isn’t going to be very comforting.

Sure, Donald Trump is predicting a Red Wave and bragging about his so-called successes in places like Ohio-12—the special election between Republican Troy Balderson and Democrat Danny O’Connor is still too close to call—but a look at the hard data behind this season’s special elections shows that Democrats stand a better than 50/50 chance of retaking the House in November, and doing so convincingly.

The non-partisan Cook Political Report said yesterday that Democrats have outperformed expectations in 9 House Special Elections this cycle by an average of 8 percent.

To get an idea on what that could look like in November, if Democrats performed at that level in all 435 Congressional districts, they’d pick up 81 House seats. Of course, as David Wasserman, Cook’s analyst on House races, points out, that’s not likely to happen because not every district is a toss-up, thanks to the power of incumbency.

However, Democrats only need 23 seats to retake the House, and since 37 Republicans are choosing not to seek re-election, there are enough open seats to make incumbency irrelevant.

In an article I wrote in February, I documented how special elections at the state level painted a gloomy picture for the GOP this election season. After a string of Democrat victories since November 2016, House Speaker Paul Ryan reached the same conclusion, and it’s only grown worse since February.

The reasons the Republicans face a Blue Tsunami are plain for all to see. Besides the usual midterm struggles experienced by the party occupying the White House, Trump and the GOP have broken nearly every promise they made to conservatives when they begged us to give them control of Washington, such as: repealing Obamacare, defunding Planned Parenthood, controlling spending, and fixing immigration.

To make matters worse, Trump continues to carry historically low job-approval numbers, and his Twitter rants, trade war, and weak moral character only serve to drive them lower.

In a nutshell, the Republicans have betrayed conservatives and our values, giving voters no reason to show up and support them at the polls. When you take this reality and add it to a fired-up Democrat party dedicated to retaking the House and impeaching Trump, the outcome in November is inevitable.

Originally posted on The Strident Conservative.

 


David Leach is the owner of The Strident Conservative. His daily radio commentary is distributed by the Salem Radio Network and is heard on stations across America.

Follow the Strident Conservative on Twitter and Facebook. Subscribe to receive podcasts of radio commentaries: iTunes | Stitcher | Tune In | RSS

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Democrats

How NOT to beat AOC: Run a big-dollar GOP candidate against her

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How NOT to beat AOC Run a big-dollar GOP candidate against her

There is some excitement coming out of the Bronx because of an alleged “big money donor” with connections who wants to defeat Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) so badly, he or she is willing to fork over tons of dollars and influence in a campaign to turn the deep blue district red. This won’t happen. It will be disastrous if they try.

The only thing that could possibly work for the GOP to upend the hyper-leftist radical progressive would be to find the ideal candidate and run a purely grassroots campaign against her. Otherwise, they’d only be playing to her strengths.

If the GOP is serious about beating her, they need to forget the money angle. That’s not to say they don’t need money, but it needs to be money from within the district comprised of small donors who are targeted starting as soon as possible. They don’t need to appeal to the few Republicans in the district. They need to go after the independents and Democrats.

Their message must be simple, something to the effect of “The only candidate from the Bronx who is actually interested in the Bronx.” They have plenty of ammunition available to demonstrate how Ocasio-Cortez has her sights very clearly set on the national arena in which social media and battles with other Democrats is making her a nationwide star. They need someone who attends city council meetings, community meetings, and is 100% focused on the issues that concern the people of the Bronx instead of the grand ideas of Green New Deals and Medicare-for-All.

Then, they need a PAC that hammers away at the detrimental effects losing the Amazon deal has had on the Bronx. This is a gimme.

If their plans to go after AOC with money is the strategy that plays out, she’ll destroy them. It won’t be close. Every dollar spent will literally have the opposite effect. They can’t beat her with money. They need to hit doorbells.

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Democrats

Is Beto’s campaign already crumbling?

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Is Betos campaign already crumbling

Yes. Yes it is.

You won’t see any in mainstream media talking about it, not because they’re all trying to hide the reality (though some are) but because they probably haven’t noticed. This isn’t an analysis of what we’re seeing. The proof of Beto O’Rourke’s campaign demise can be seen in what’s absence.

Betomania isn’t taking hold as many (including me) predicted. He was actually getting more attention and interest from mainstream media before he officially announced his candidacy. Now, he’s struggling to get positive headlines. Even neutral stories, such as a pair of campaign aides leaving but still volunteering for the campaign, is being positioned in a negative light. The Hill’s headline was truthful and not spun, something they’re not known to do with headlines about candidates. Instead, it’s “Key aides leave O’Rourke’s campaign: report.”

Another story that’s making its rounds is his use of lobbyist campaign contributions. A favored candidate would get a plethora of headlines excusing this action with whataboutisms and claims of nothingburgers, bug so far, nothing. “O’Rourke faces question about acceptance of lobbyist money” is the type of headline we’re seeing.

In fact, we’re even seeing some negative opinion pieces coming from leftist publications. Radical progressive site Mother Jones didn’t take kindly to O’Rourke’s claims that his lack of charitable giving was due to him giving himself to the people.

So, where’s the Betomania we were promised? Some of it is being sucked away by a concerted effort underway by some progressive groups who really, really want a woman to be at the top of the ticket, and not Hillary Clinton. With Senators Kamala Harris, Elizabeth Warren, Amy Klobuchar, and Kirsten Gillibrand all having favorable genders to some of these groups than someone like O’Rourke, the need to chop him down is important if they’re going to have a chance against the two old white guys, Vice President Joe Biden and Senator Bernie Sanders.

But the primary reason Beto is flailing for attention is because so much of it is going to South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg. Like O’Rourke did with his 2018 Senate campaign, Buttigieg came out of nowhere to suddenly be rising in the polls and raising an unexpected amount of campaign funds. He’s also getting a sustained level of attention from the media as compared to O’Rourke’s hills and valleys.

Little by little, Buttigieg is getting attention from everyone on the left. He’s omnipresent in the media, which is very difficult considering the number and popularity of his competitors.

So far in April, he’s drawn many more searches on Google than O’Rourke. Most of this can be attributed to people simply not knowing who he is, but the consistency of his media dominance is worth noting.

Very few saw Scott Walker’s climb and sudden fall in 2015 during the early days of the GOP primary. He went from the frontrunner to pulling his name from contention seemingly overnight. Are we seeing the same with Beto O’Rourke?

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Democrats

Dan Bongino: The more we find out about Michael Avenatti, the creepier he becomes

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Dan Bongino The more we find out about Michael Avenatti the creepier he becomes

One of the best parts about Dan Bongino was noted by Tucker Carlson in the beginning of this video. Bongino is one of the most clear speakers on television with zero “ums, likes, or stutters” as he delivers his vast understanding of the world of politics. He’s easy to listen to, which is important considering how much influence he’s starting to gain in the world of conservative media.

Speaking to Carlson about this crazy week in news, Bongino led off with a very clear truth: porn lawyer Michael Avenatti is as creepy as they get. He’s up there with James Comey on the strangeness scale and he’s beyond Joe Biden on the creepy scale. Nobody comes close on the sleaziness scale.

The funny part, as Bongino points out, is he’s actually been a regularly on most left-leaning shows from lowly podcasts to CNN and MSNBC programs, including… wait for it… Reliable Source. Avenatti is just a punchline now.

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