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Emoji loving Manning running for Senate

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After getting off early in the eleventh hour of Obama’s presidency, Manning became an “activist” taking on and getting roasted by many conservatives on Twitter, most memorably, Ben Shapiro. Now he’s filed for a Senate run for Ben Cardin’s seat in Maryland. This would be Manning stepping up to the big leagues of politics for sure.

It’s somewhat similar to Austin Petersen in Missouri, in that we have someone who has built up a social media following prior to launching a high profile campaign. This strategy definitely worked for Trump, among other things, but we await how social media darlings perform in campaigns.

However, this is also possible battle in the Democrat civil war between the Old Party and the Socialists. In The Most Important Races of 2018: Part 1, one of the elections mentioned was the Illinois District 3 race because one of the most moderate pro-life Democrats was being challenged by the pro-abortion and far more leftist Marrie Newman.

This was the first instance of a very formidable leftist challenging a Democrat for not being socialist enough. Manning, whatever his first name is these days, is on the side of Socialist for in the potential intra-party civil war. He is on the Colin Kaepernick, Linda Sarsour, and perhaps Bernie Sanders level.

This looks like it could be battle number two but Ben Cardin is a rock solid product of the Maryland Democrat machine. So in a way, this seems like two liberal going at it but key differences in policies are likely to be found in the area of foreign policy and dealing with Trump.

Being transgender isn’t enough to win a seat in liberal Maryland. The seriousness of Manning will largely depend on his finances.  Maryland seats are so easy to win by Democrats because of how blue the state is and the heavy gerrymandering for the House districts. So when a new seat opens up in Maryland, Democrats invest loads of money to fight for the easy to retain seat.

Thus David Trone spent 10 million losing a House primary in 2016 while Chris Van Hollen spent enormous amounts of money to win his Senate Primary (he was trying to upgrade from the House to the Senate because Barbara Mikulski was retiring). Both of these high dollar primaries were for open seats, so if Manning wants to primary Ben Cardin, he will need a lot of money.

Maryland is Democrat because of its proximity to the Federal government. There are tons of government workers and contractors in Maryland, and several companies where workers need security clearances. Odds are the convicted intel thief isn’t going to get off so easy with voters just because he put lipstick on. It will also be interesting to see Manning’s ability to win the black vote because Bernie Sanders failed to beat Hillary in this category despite being BLM and beyond.

Lastly, it Manning’s likability among independents will also make or break him. Maryland has closed primaries so they won’t be able to stop him if Democrats abandon long-time Senator Cardin.

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Final Thoughts

Republican nominees have their rallying cry. Cardin could be deposed or simply step aside to let the young man take his place and retire at 75. If Manning becomes the nominee, the race just became watchable. In the past, Republican efforts to take the seat have been pitiful, to say the least, but Manning is likely an amateur at campaigning and a polarizing figure, to put it mildly. He lacks experience and has a criminal record. So GOP might have a chance to steal this seat for six years. One thing is for certain: this Senate race just got interesting.

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Democrats

Republicans can avert a shutdown if they turn the narrative

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Republicans can avert a shutdown if they turn the narrative

Democrats are giving every reason they can muster to push a government shutdown. The primary tool is DACA. If the government shuts down, it will be because they’re convinced the GOP will get the blame for it. If sentiment turns and the Democrats get fingered for prompting the shutdown, they won’t let it happen.

There are several dynamic situations involved with the shutdown. DACA is only a small part of it. They’re trying to position this as a win-win for them and the Republicans seem to be unable to get the right message out about the shutdown. This isn’t new for them. If the GOP initiates the shutdown as they did during the Obama era, it’s their fault. If they can’t stop the Democrats from initiating a shutdown as is the situation today, it’s their fault as well.

Mainstream media’s desire to promote the Democrats’ message is a big part of the reason the GOP always takes the blame, but it’s not an insurmountable advantage. They need to paint the situation in its proper colors. The GOP has the truth on their side, so they need to say it. Instead, they seem to be cowering as usual:

Nervous Republicans fear they’ll pay if government shuts down

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/nervous-republicans-fear-they-ll-pay-government-shutdown-n838276WASHINGTON — President Donald Trump is confident that Democrats will take the blame if the government shuts down this weekend or Congress fails to find a fix to prevent DACA recipients from being deported. But Republicans on Capitol Hill aren’t so sure.

Many of them fear that voters will fault the GOP after looking at Trump’s decision to end the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program, his past flirtation with letting federal funding expire and the fact that Republicans are in control of the White House, the Senate and the House.

First, they need to attack DACA by framing it as what it is. The President has done his part in saying he wants to protect Dreamers but wants a wall to keep more of them from coming in. That’s a reasonable trade-off in the eyes of most voters.

Second, the GOP needs to unify with the message that they’re going to protect Dreamers the right way through standalone legislative action. Executive orders can’t cut it. Attaching it to other bills isn’t right. They want a DACA plan in place and they can do it if the Democrats would focus on helping Dreamers rather than trying to be the ones who get the credit for it.

Third, they need to declare the Democrats are hurting Americans through a shutdown for the sake of getting credit for helping Dreamers. It’s not just  that they’re putting illegal immigrants over American citizens which is bad enough. They’re doing so in order to get credit from voters. That’s it. That’s the whole reason for the shutdown. They can’t imagine a situation in which the GOP puts forth Dreamer-protecting legislation and a Republican President signs it into law unless it’s the Democrats who somehow force the situation. Otherwise, they might be revealed as the charlatans they are.

If Republican leadership gets everyone on board and pushes out these three simple messages with everything they’ve got, they have a chance of both averting a shutdown and making the Democrats look foolish for threatening it. If they continue down the lukewarm road they’re on, there will be a shutdown and they’ll get the blame for it whether they deserve it or not.

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Democrats

New Jersey’s new governor sees California as progressive model

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New Jerseys new governor sees California as progressive model

The next great progressive Democratic hope in 2020 is Phil Murphy.

You’ll know him real soon. Tuesday, he gets sworn in as Governor of New Jersey.

But Murphy has the personal wealth (he’s a former Goldman Sachs executive), the street cred (as President Obama’s Ambassador to Germany) and the fertile ground (Hillary Clinton beat Donald Trump by 13 points) to use the Garden State as a launching pad for his sense of progressive nirvana.

That nirvana? California! Murphy wants to make New Jersey into the next California.

That’s right. The state with the highest poverty rate in the nation, according to the Census Bureau. (How does your state compare? Go to page 27 of this fascinating Census report.)

So when Murphy says he sees California as a “model” to emulate, New Jersey residents in the know say “Uh-oh.”

And if they’re really smart they’ll say “U-Haul.”

California’s generous safety-net programs appear to have made poverty worse, according to local, mainstream-media coverage of the lowlights there including:

  • 55% of immigrant families (but only 30% of “native” families) receive some sort of means-tested benefits;
  • A sanctuary state;
  • restrictive land-use (anti-development) policies driving up the cost of housing; and
  • a welfare bureaucracy employing nearly one million people, many of whom might lose their jobs if their “customers” were to graduate off the dependency trap.

Murphy says he will “pursue creative reactions” and possibly challenge in court policies like the Republican tax bill recently signed by President Trump. But he also claims the “only thing we’ve promised is a stronger and fairer economy in this state,”  and quickly adds “that includes for organized labor.”

Whoa! Wait, what’s that? Did I hear a “fairer economy”? (This is when the unnecessary adjective warning goes off, heralding the addition of an adjective acting as an antonym for the word it’s modifying.)

But if the solution is the California-model of social services, there appears to be no end to the downward spiral of higher taxes, more poverty . . . and the public-sector Gravy Train grows and grows, gets longer and longer.

For Murphy, that may not be a bug, but a feature. That’s because there’s a tipping point, where there are simply enough Gravy Train passengers and beneficiaries (recipients and government employees, sometimes they’re both) that if they all get out and vote, the tax-and-spend-more progressives will win, no matter what.

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Democrats

Rich Lowry on Dick Durbin’s desire to make a DACA deal work

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Rich Lowry on Dick Durbins desire to make a DACA deal work

Based upon Senator Dick Durbin’s actions the last few days regarding President Trump’s “s***hole” comments, one would think his intention was to derail talks and have a valid reason to blame Republicans in general and Trump in particular. If he really wanted a DACA deal, wouldn’t he have handled it differently?

JD Rucker had some thoughts on this:

Trump was wrong to say what he said. Durbin was wrong to reveal it.

http://noqreport.com/2018/01/12/trump-wrong-say-said-durbin-wrong-reveal/Durbin crossed that line. He took comments that paint the entire country through the President himself in a way that harms our ability to work with other nations. He wasn’t championing the nations Trump spoke out about. He had a single intention: harm.

Will this help with negotiations? Possibly, but at what cost?

National Review’s Rich Lowry wasn’t quite as accusatory, but he did question Durbin’s motives and whether or not he really wanted to make a DACA deal happen. Perhaps he was just greatly offended. Then again, perhaps he was just being a politician. Here’s Lowry’s quote:

“Everyone seems to think that Durbin really wants a deal, which makes it weird that he has gone out of his way to blow up the s***hole meeting.”

Read all of his comments:

Trump’s “Shithole” Comments, DACA & Political Fallout

http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/455430/trump-shithole-comments-daca-political-falloutOne benefit of a merit-based system is that it would move us away from special ethnic pleading in immigration policy. The visa lottery began as affirmative action for Irish immigrants. My understanding is that Dick Durbin said in the meeting that he wanted to preserve the visa lottery in a slightly changed form because the Congressional Black Caucus wanted it. This is not how we should be making decisions about who comes here and who doesn’t.

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