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On the eve of the Alabama Senate election, Doug Jones and Roy Moore may beat each other by double digits, depending on which poll you read. That’s not unprecedented, but it’s definitely strange to see such a wide range between simultaneously released polls. It means one thing for sure: polling isn’t an effective indicator of results.
We learned this last year when pretty much every major poll showed Hillary Clinton defeating Donald Trump, often by a large margin. That, of course, wasn’t the case. With the Moore-Jones battle, it’s even wider with polls showing the leader up by 9-10 points. The problem is that different polls show different leaders.
In a mobile phone world, it’s often a very tight section of a population that can even get polled since a majority of them are carried out through landline telephones. Even the polls that include mobile devices cannot be relied upon because those within a geography based upon their phone number may be out of the state altogether.
There’s one more thing we know for sure. Whatever happens tomorrow, it’s going to be crazy and talked about for a long time.
One day before Alabama’s closely watched Senate special election between Republican Roy Moore and Democrat Doug Jones, two new polls were published — one from Fox News showing Jones leading by 10 points and another from Emerson showing Moore up by 9 .
Background: Since the Washington Post first reported about alleged sexual misconduct by Moore, polls in Alabama have been going back and fourth between both candidates. So who’s really leading? The old addage applies: it all comes down to turnout.
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