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China expelling all North Korean businesses, this could be good or catastrophic

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The latest round of UN sanctions, along with the tough new U.S. policy of shutting down North Korean access to banking systems, seems to have China convinced that we mean business.

Instead of pushing back against the sanctions, the press is reporting that China has ordered all North Korean companies to leave or shut down within 120 days.

This could be great news. China accounts for the vast majority of North Korea’s trade. Now Chinese businesses along the Yalu River are complaining that they can’t do business with their North Korean clients, and it’s hurting them financially. Some of them are blaming America. I’m not particularly worried about that, or about Beijing being tweaked that the U.S. is causing them some pain. They know where their bread is now buttered, and it’s definitely not with Kim Jong-un.

It could also be catastrophic, if not handled correctly. The last country to be so isolated, with a vast military infrastructure and motivated population was pre-World War II Japan. That led to Pearl Harbor and war. If Kim is backed into a corner, we really don’t know what he will do. Almost the last thing the Chinese want is a war on the Korean peninsula. The only thing that would be worse is having American troops or an American-allied government ruling in North Korea, right on its border.

There’s really no possibility of Kim Jong-un winning a conventional war with South Korea. But he could kill millions in losing one. And what would “winning” look like with millions of starving, ungovernable North Koreans continuing to resist and fight in the mountains for years? It could be a tragedy beyond anything in the last fifty years. And if the war went nuclear, the results could be unimaginable and lasting (radiation and poisoning Japan’s fishing waters).

Perspectives

Chinese government orders all North Korean firms to close in China | The Independent

The Chinese government has ordered all North Korean companies based in the country to close as a result of UN sanctions over Pyongyang’s latest nuclear missile tests. The move comes amid intense international pressure on China to act to rein-in its neighbour. This week, North Korea said it was “inevitable” that its rockets would hit the US mainland in future, and said remarks by Donald Trump amounted to a “declaration of war”.

How to Tell If North Korea and America Are Actually Headed to War – The Atlantic

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2017/09/trump-kim-words-korea/541164/“If you’re actually going to go to war, you have to do a lot of things—primarily in terms of logistics and communications and mobilizing reserve forces … and you don’t see any of those on the [U.S.-South Korean forces] side to the south of the [Korean Demilitarized Zone] nor to the north of it,” said Dennis Blair, a former director of national intelligence and commander of U.S. forces in the Pacific. In 1994, for instance, when Blair was commanding a battle group in the western Pacific and the Clinton administration nearly decided to strike a North Korean nuclear reactor, Blair’s deployment was diverted from the Persian Gulf to Korea, Patriot anti-missile batteries flowed into the region, and a range of military units were put on alert to carry out war plans against North Korea.

World War 3 latest: Russia on war footing as Putin’s troops amass on North Korea border | World | News | Express.co.uk

http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/859456/World-War-3-north-Korea-Russia-USA-Donald-Trump-PutinPhotos captured some of the troops patrolling the top of Zaozyonara Hill, a meeting point between Russia, North Korea and China. President Putin has indicated that the world will have to accept a nuclear armed North Korea, warning the rogue nation would rather “eat grass” than go without weapons. That action, in the south-western Russian region of Astrakhan, came after weeks of arguments over controversial military drills in Europe.  Russia has also carried out a number of maneouvres with China in recent weeks.

North Korea-US war now ‘a real possibility’, warns influential RUSI think tank | The Independent

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/north-korea-us-war-donald-trump-kim-jong-un-real-possibility-rusi-think-tank-a7972706.htmlA war between North Korea and the US is now a “real possibility”, and would likely result in thousands of people being killed or injured, a respected defence think tank has warned. War between the two countries would likely involve a full scale invasion of North Korea, and combat would be neither “surgical nor short”, the Royal United Services Institute (Rusi) said in a report. In the event of an attack by either country, the UK would only have a few hours “at most” to decide how to respond, it adds.

China Is Kicking Out All NK Businesses | The Daily Caller

http://dailycaller.com/2017/09/28/china-is-kicking-out-all-north-korean-businesses/?utm_campaign=atdailycaller&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=atdailycaller&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=atdailycaller&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=SocialWhen it comes to Chinese efforts to halt North Korea’s march to greater power, the implementation of sanctions has been inconsistent. It is unclear what is driving China’s sudden shift, but it is clear that there are tensions between Beijing and Pyongyang.

North Korea refuses to meet with Chinese envoys, and there is a great deal of contempt between North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un and Chinese President Xi Jinping. Furthermore, North Korea’s repeated provocations are destabilizing Northeast Asia, making the regime more of a liability rather than a strategic asset for the Chinese government.

Reactions

Final thoughts

If there’s a war to be fought, the thought that America somehow started it is foolish and politically motivated by American liberal self-hatred. For years–decades–the United States has put up with North Korea’s bellicose threats. They’ve declared war on us multiple times, and have attacked and killed our soldiers along with South Korean (ROK) troops. Now they’re threatening more than just local carnage. We have to draw a line somewhere, and to date, the U.S. hasn’t done anything outside of normal diplomatic efforts, with the exception of President Trump’s tweets and name-calling at the UN.

Something worked, however, since China has now pivoted to the strongest position it has ever taken to rein in Kim Jong-un. This is in itself a major advantage. Either there will be a change of leadership in North Korea, or there will be some kind of verifiable path to denuclearization and even disarmament and peace. Or there could be war. There’s a small percentage change it could be a nuclear war, but let’s not cry Chicken Little here. So far, this is a win for the good guys.

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