Opinions
Alabama’s runoff election: How the Establishment is brought down… or not
There is a more at stake in the upcoming Alabama GOP runoff election than a Senate spot. This is a race that will help determine the future of the GOP. It’s not even about the candidates as much as it’s about who’s supporting them. Whoever comes out on top between Roy Moore and Luther Strange, their public supporters will win or lose just as much as the candidates themselves.
It should be noted that this is not your standard conservative-vs-moderate battle. We have those all the time and generally speaking the winner is determined by campaign strategies, effectiveness of attack ads, and where on the political spectrum the voters sit. What makes this particular race different is the attention it’s getting from the press, politicians, and political organizations. Primaries don’t get the national coverage that this one is getting, even when it’s a special election.
Moore is the conservative and Strange is the semi-moderate, but what’s really important is that Moore is the gunslinging political outsider while Strange is the Establishment champion. Moore has about 1/9th the funds raised that Strange has; once upon a time that would have spelled doom for the newcomer but it’s 2017. Anything can happen.
Moore has picked up some good endorsements such as Gun Owners of America, the National Organization for Marriage, and the Senate Conservative Fund. He also picked up the endorsement of a former foe, Congressman Mo Brooks, who came in third in the primary.
Strange has the Establishment’s support. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has been behind Strange from day 1. This is no surprise, nor is the support he’s picked up from Establishment superPACs. What may be surprising is that the golden boy for business-as-usual has also received a ton of support from the man who vowed to drain the swamp, President Donald Trump.
How could Strange be the guy that brings Trump and McConnell together? That’s the question nobody’s really been able to answer. It makes sense for McConnell to support him, but Trump ran on being anti-Establishment. Has he changed his tune? Does he now embrace the Establishment’s playbook? Based upon his support for DACA and his penchant for working with Democrats, it shouldn’t be surprising that someone like Strange would appeal to him enough that he’s willing to campaign for him directly during a primary.
That’s why the stakes are so high in the race. On paper, Strange should wipe out Moore easily with tons more money, more superPAC support, and the two most important endorsements from DC that he can receive. Despite all this, he came in second in the original primary. If he loses to Moore, it will be a devastating message sent to DC in general and President Trump in particular. It will mean that his base, once powerful enough to put him in the White House, is now not strong enough to keep a sitting Senator from being primaried by a political outsider.
Over the next week, expect coverage to ramp up. Here’s a taste of what’s already being said:
Perspectives
Mo Brooks endorses Roy Moore in Alabama Senate race | Kelly Cohen and David M. Drucker, Washington Examiner
Brooks, who finished third in round one of the Aug. 15 special GOP primary contest after sustaining million of dollars in political attacks from a super PAC connected to McConnell, made clear that his antipathy toward the Senate majority leader was a motivating factor behind his endorsement of Moore, the former chief justice of the Alabama Supreme Court.
More conservative endorsements come in for Moore | Brandon Moseley, Alabama Political Reporter
American Family Association President Tim Wildmon said in a statement: “As a fellow conservative who cares about the direction of this great nation, I wholeheartedly endorse my friend, Judge Roy Moore, for the US Senate race in Alabama. Judge Moore’s record on pro-life issues and traditional marriage, as well as his firm stand for the United States Constitution and his reverence and acknowledgement of God, make him the clear choice in this important election.”
Trump To Campaign For Luther Strange | Alex Pfeiffer, Daily Caller
President Donald Trump tweeted Saturday that he will travel to Alabama to support Sen. Luther Strange in the state’s Republican primary runoff election.
Roy Moore consolidating anti-establishment support in Alabama Senate race | Alex Pappas, Fox News
Moore has also been endorsed by several conservative federal lawmakers, including Kentucky Sen. Thomas Massie, Ohio Rep. Jim Jordan and North Carolina Rep. Mark Meadows.
Trump takes on Bannon in Alabama Senate showdown | Alex Isenstadt, Politico
Strange spoke several times with Trump by phone last week and asked him to visit before the election. In one of the calls, Strange told the president that he wanted him to come to Alabama but understood that Trump was focused on a pair of devastating hurricanes, according to three people briefed on the discussion. During the 30-minute conversation, Trump told Strange he supported him but was unsure what he could do.
McConnell, Senate Leadership Fund Bring The War To Steve Bannon’s Doorstep | Joe Cunningham, RedState
Bannon has used his attack dogs, the writing staff at Breitbart, to attack Luther Strange and Mitch McConnell. The Senate Majority Leader, however, is no stranger to being attacked. In a return volley, the Senate Leadership Fund, McConnell’s own attack dogs, are pumping tons of money into the race, and plan to dump $4 million more before the September 26 run-off.
Breaking: NRA Goes All In For Luther Strange With New Ad Campaign – Yellowhammer News
The NRA—the country’s largest Second Amendment advocacy organization—told Yellowhammer today that it is launching a seven-figure ad campaign across Alabama starting tomorrow as a show of support for Strange in these last ten days of the election.
Final Thoughts
Which way will the GOP go? This isn’t just about Alabama, though they’re the ones who hold the reins. If Strange wins, it will demonstrate the power of the Establishment led by Trump and McConnell. If Moore wins, it will demonstrate that despite less money and opposition from a sitting president, the anti-Establishment stance is alive and will in Alabama… and possible across the country. We’ll be eagerly awaiting the results.
Nevada is full of competition. There are no shortage of quality candidates in Nevada, only quality politicians. Nevada isn’t a strong blue state or red state. It usually sides with the winner in a presidential election. In fact, given Trump’s upset, it was surprising Nevada wasn’t one of the states where polling was wholly inaccurate. Nevada is home of Las Vegas, the country’s fastest growing metropolitan area. So the future political leanings of the state are up in the air. This primary features vacancies which offer a nice opportunity to grow conservative ideals among the population.
Best Picks: Danny Tarkanian, Joel Beck
Worst Picks: Mark Amodei, Cresent Hardy
Best Race: District 3
Worst Race: District 4
US Senate
Dean Heller is an incumbent Republican and in all likelihood will keep his nomination. Heller is running on a rather unimpressive Senate record showing that he is part of the problem, not the solution. There are four challengers but only a few are worth talking about. The first is Sarah Gazala. She is somewhat running as a conservative, but her emphasis on education shows that she isn’t the right fit for the Senate. A local office would be a better calling. Then there’s Vic Harrell. The only discernible fact about Harrell is his devotion to Trump. This zeal isn’t wrong but it doesn’t make him a good candidate. The strongest challenger is Tom Heck. Heck ran and lost in 2016 in a tight race. It’s very possible Heck could maintain the seat, and probable that he would do a superior job.
Conservative Pick: Tom Heck
District 1
Two challengers seek to red pill this district. The first, Joyce Bentley, has a decent platform and is like to side with Trump on several key issues. The issue is whether she will deviate when necessary. The second is Freddy Horne. He is likely the more viable candidate here having a history of running a campaign, but its a moot point in this district.
Conservative Pick: Joyce Bentley
District 2
Mark Amodei has held the seat for a while and is a RINO. He faces three challengers. Sharron Angel is the first. She was a failed Senate candidate in 2016 losing to Heck. She seems as though a strong Conservative. But she may be a weak candidate. Joel Beck is a veteran running on a solid small government platform. He has a more thorough understanding of veterans issues and immigration than most. Beck would be an outstanding defender of the Constitution.
Conservative Pick: Joel Beck
District 3
This vacated seat has caused a feeding frenzy of an election. but this race is between Scott Hammond and Danny Tarkanian. Hammond is a State Senator with a decent record and the backing of the NRA. But from this article which he promoted, he doesn’t seem to be a strong defender of liberty, though its hard to get a clear picture with the bias writing. In a rare instance of strategic planning by the Trump administration with regards to the 2018 race, Team Trump convinced Tarkanian to seek the House as opposed to the Senate. Danny Tarkanian, being a team player, obliged. Nothing wrong with that. Playing along earned him a Trump endorsement. And while Heller gets by with one less challenger from the right, Tarkanian has a better chance at reducing government spending as he campaigns heavily on. Overall, Tarkanian may be a sycophant, but Hammond is more likely a RINO climbing the ladder.
Conservative Pick: Danny Tarkanian
District 4
Congressman Ruben Kihuen will not seek reelection as the result of a sexual harassment scandal. This presents a golden opportunity to flip this blue seat. Many Republicans have entered but there is no clear frontrunner. First up is Jeff Miller. He’s running to prevent Nevada from becoming East California. With all the candidates, the Las Vegas Review-Journal made this one easy. The former Congressman refused to answer. If Cresent Hardy believes he’s too big to answer yes or no questions, he probably thinks he’s too good to talk to his constituents. The only thing that is concerning is the question on DACA recipients.
Conservative Pick: Jeff Miller
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