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Rep. Mia Love’s best strategy in Utah is to do nothing

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Utah may be a traditionally red state, but that mostly applies to the presidency. While true that a Republican currently sits in each of the state’s federal offices, that comes more easily to some congressional districts than others.

Utah’s 4th District stands out as the Beehive State’s biggest congressional anomaly for a number of reasons, including close races, odd voter turnout, and recent start-up. The 4th District held its first elections in 2012, 30 years after the creation of the 3rd District, and it is the only one of Utah’s districts to begin with a Democratic representative in office.

Current Representative Mia Love (R) ran in that initial race, losing to Democrat Jim Matheson by 0.3%, or just over 750 votes out of more than 245,000. Love tried her luck again in 2014 following Matheson’s retirement, and this time she bested her Democratic opponent, Doug Owens, by a slightly better margin of 50.9% to 45.8%. Still, in a state with congressional spreads averaging around 65-70% Republican over 25-30% Democrat in recent years, that’s not a comfortable lead by any means. Even more interestingly, the 2014 election turned out only 147,000 voters, 98,000 fewer than the previous election. Owens challenged Love to a rematch in 2016, faring slightly worse with a loss of 53.8% to 41.3%, voter turnout skyrocketing to 274,500.

Love’s victory wasn’t a blowout, but it followed projections. Ballotpedia had marked her seat as “Lean R” according to two leading polls, contrasted with each of her fellow Utah representatives, ranked “Solid R” and “Safe R” based on the same polls. Predictions for her contemporaries in the 2018 election have remained consistent, but this time Love’s base has increased, improving to “Safe R” and “Likely R” — not quite as assured as other Utah Republicans, but certainly closer to their league.

And now, to capitalize on this promising field position, what should Love do if she wants to win in 2018? As little as possible. Basically nothing. Not to say that this plan helps her constituents, but it’s her best bet to retain her seat, and she’s delivering quite nicely. To win in Utah, you need three things: be a Republican, stay in the middle, and remain so invisible that everyone forgets you exist and they just vote for the incumbent.

Utah voters are only subconsciously looking for items two and three, but they’re very aware of their search for number one: Republicans. As we learned in 2016, Utah doesn’t like Trump, but it voted for pro-Trump congressmen at precisely the same rate it voted for never-Trump congressmen. As long as you’re a Republican in the general election, you’ll probably win. And no one has announced their intent to primary Love in 2018.

That said, as I’ve previously opined, Utah is drifting to port; being Republican is only half the battle now. If Love wants to pull out a win, she has to anchor herself somewhere in the middle and stay there. Again, she’s sticking to that plan. She talks like a Republican but votes like a Democrat; she voted for the AHCA, which Democrats and Republicans both disliked for very different reasons, placing her in the crossfire but away from politically hazardous extremes; her Conservative Review Liberty Score is 50%, the lowest of any Utah representative in the House and obviously right in the middle.

Might this only upset both sides? Not really. For Democrats, a 50% Republican is a Republican they can stomach. For Republicans, a 50% Republican is still better than a Democrat. Playing both sides results in a net gain of zero, so it’s essentially the same as doing nothing. And as long as Love isn’t too public about her inactivity, she can get away with it. It’s all about keeping up appearances.

Love steps into the spotlight exactly as often as she needs to do and says exactly what she needs to — she campaigned with the Tea Party initially before settling into moderate politics once elected; she spoke at a rally against hatred following the Charlottesville terrorist attack by a white supremacist; she speaks out regularly in opposition to abortion but approved a budget placing no restrictions on Planned Parenthood in order to avoid a government shutdown. Love famously refuses to hold town hall meetings, preferring personal office interviews with her constituents. But as one writer suggests, this actually results in far less interaction with voters and prevents Love from hearing the collective voice of her district. That might be true, but one-on-one chats with voters seems like a more involved approach, so it works in Love’s favor.

Then she shrinks back to Incumbent Land, where you have a 97% chance of reelection as long as you don’t do anything extremely stupid.

Like I said, to win in Utah, you need three things: be a Republican, toe the line, and stay out of the public eye. Love is hitting the mark on all three. Is that the most helpful approach for improving our country? Not in the slightest, but who said that was Congress’s plan?

Richie Angel is a Co-Editor in Chief of The New Guards. Follow him and The New Guards on Twitter, and check out The New Guards on Facebook.

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Democrats

Kyrsten Sinema’s socialist thoughts now exemplify over half of Arizona

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Kyrsten Sinema's socialist thoughts now exemplify over half of Arizona

Arizona can no longer be considered a red state. As the Senate election vote counts finish up, Democrat Kyrsten Sinema appears poised to win. It isn’t that a Democrat won that makes me move Arizona from red to purple. It’s that a socialist in moderate clothing was able to pull the wool over the eyes of Arizona voters so easily.

Just an hour of research is enough to break through the Arizona mainstream media’s false narrative that Sinema is a moderate. She is anti-capitalism, in favor of open borders, and had the lowest Liberty Score of anyone in the House representing Arizona.

Then, there’s this:

“A huge dollar bill is the most accurate way to teach children the real motto of the United States: In the Almighty Dollar We Trust… Until the average American realizes that capitalism damages her livelihood while augmenting the livelihoods of the wealthy, the Almighty Dollar will continue to rule. It certainly is not ruling in our favor.”

Arizona chose poorly.

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Democrats

Unless there’s a miracle, Arizona just put Kyrsten Sinema in the Senate

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Unless theres a miracle Arizona just put Kyrsten Sinema in the Senate

As of this morning, Democrat Kyrsten Sinema has a 32,169 vote lead over Republican Martha McSally. There are still votes left to count with both sides claiming the uncounted votes favor them, but considering the sources for remaining ballots, it appears they favor Sinema.

In other words, she almost certainly won.

What does that say about the state of the Republican Party? What does it say about Arizona? What is the writing on the wall for the American people?

Big questions surround this election because the race really should have gone the other way if we use conventional wisdom. Sinema was caught on multiple occasions disparaging the people she hoped to represent, calling Arizona the “meth lab of democracy.” She ran as a moderate, which is easily contradicted by both her extreme Green Party views a decade ago and her voting record in Congress. Her opponent, McSally, is a veteran who flew combat missions in Afghanistan. She truly is a moderate.

All of these factors tell us a state like Arizona should have picked McSally. Unfortunately, it appears that isn’t the case.

Did the GOP do enough? If you ask McSally’s team, at least one of them doesn’t think so. A senior member of her campaign staff who wanted to remain anonymous said the state GOP “did right by us” but the RNC was focused elsewhere.

“We heard support was coming but it didn’t. Not enough of it at least,” the senior campaign member said. “I got the feeling they thought PACs would swoop in and save the day but the RNC was absent. If we lose it’s on us but they let it happen.”

As for what this says about Arizona, we have to wonder whether the illegal immigration message is being used properly in the border state. Illegal immigration hurts legal immigrants the most, yet McSally’s border security message didn’t seem to resonate.

Texas didn’t fall to a far-leftist, but it appears Arizona did. If the result hold, the GOP should watch closely to see if this is a one-off or the beginning of a trend similar to their surges from 2010-2016.

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Culture and Religion

Intellectual ammunition: Mythology vs Facts of ‘gun control’

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Intellectual ammunition Mythology vs Facts of gun control

This multipart series eviscerates some of the Left’s biggest lies and fallacies of Liberty Control

In the first of a new multipart series, Gardner Goldsmith @gardgoldsmith of MRCTV addresses the issues surrounding Liberty Control, destroying some of the prevalent mythologies in the process.

He begins demolishing the myth that increased Liberty control results in lower violent crime rates.

Places with strict controls on freedom with high crime rates – that the Left doesn’t like to talk about – that are prima facie indicators of this absurd fallacy.

Worse yet, laws that are supposed to keep people safe have the opposite effect, since they only serve to disarm the innocent to the advantage of criminals and the government. The edged weapon attacks in China show that it’s not an issue of issue of guns nor one confined to the states. Or the attack in Crimea or the recent tragedy in a state with the strictest Liberty control around.

He cites the specific case of the mythology that gun confiscation ‘solved’ the problem of gun violence in Australia or the UK:

As I noted for MRCTV in February of 2018, contrary to the claims of pop media swamis, violent crime actually increased in Australia for three years following its vaunted 1996 gun “ban” and mandatory “buy-back”. This spike included an increase in gun-related violent crime, and the violent crime did not return to 1996 levels until more than ten years later, when many civilians had resorted to the black market to rearm themselves.

And, as I observed in the same article, violent crime, including homicides and gun-related violent crime, increased in the UK following its government “banning” most firearms in 1997.

Further on in the video and the accompanying article he also destroys the fallacy that Prohibition Works.

This is simple. As the experience of the United States during the “Prohibition Era” has shown, statutes don’t stop people from obtaining the things they demand. I teach economics, and this is an economic axiom. Let’s not fool ourselves into thinking that if the zones of “prohibition” are widened beyond the crime-ridden-yet-gun-banning cities like Chicago and DC, and applied to all of the US this will stop criminally minded people from obtaining firearms. Prohibition doesn’t work.

But this does not stop gun-grabbers from pushing their proposals, or even misreading the US Constitution to justify their threats to curtail your inherent right to self-defense.

Knowing the propaganda methods of the Left, if there were a real location where their ideas actually worked instead of endangering people, they would tout this ‘gun-free’ domain 24/7. We shall call this mythical realm: ‘Unitopia’ from the combination of the words ‘Unicorn’ and ‘Utopia’, which literally means ‘no place’.

If it truly existed, ‘Unitopia’ would feature broadcast studio’s for every major media source so they could talk about it 24/7. One can easily envision a video feed with the announcer intoning ‘We now go to our anchor in Unitopia – the one place that gun control has kept people safe – to discuss the news on…’. It would be the go-to locale for the discussion of Liberty and self-defense.

Part 2 Will discuss the Constitution and Founders. Their words on the common sense human right of self-defense, as well as detailing the point that only individuals can have rights.

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