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It’s been a long time since more was on the line in a State of the Union address than the one President Trump will deliver tonight. It’s not the issues of the day that makes it so crucial, though the list of accumulated points of contention and agreement are impressive. This State of the Union is going to set a tone for how the next year is going to play out based upon reception by the people.
Unlike the vast majority of SOTUs, tonight’s will be a huge litmus test for the President and his party. They’ve been so demonized by the media over the last two years (some warranted, some not) that many Americans have become disillusioned by the delivery of the messages. Notice that I didn’t say they were disillusioned by the messages themselves, but the way these messages are being filtered through an adversarial press has those on the left fired up in pure hatred for the President and his agenda while the right is feeling equal contempt for most of mainstream media and their handlers in the Democratic Party.
This litmus test will be used to see if the GOP needs to push forward with their agenda despite the opposition or if they need to reconcile and in some cases cater to Democrats. If they decide their message isn’t going to win for them in 2020, they’ll do as the GOP has always done, which is make the fatal mistake of believing they need to head towards the middle in order to win over Independents. This would be a horrendous error, but it’s the error they continuously repeat.
To understand this, let’s look at Obamacare. They won big in 2016 because they promised to dismantle the cost-growing healthcare system that had been demonstrated as an utter failure. But they didn’t act quickly enough. They didn’t strike when the iron was hot. They were given a mandate and they chose to wait until the passion behind the mandate had cooled. By doing this, the Democrats and the media were able to shift perceptions.
They should have passed the clean repeal they passed in 2015. This should have been done within weeks after they took control of the House, Senate, and White House simultaneously. But they didn’t. They played it safe and wiped out their mandate. Then, they failed to even pass a middle-ground solution. This as much as anything else cost them the House in 2018.
If polling and test groups tell them the State of the Union wasn’t received as the unifying message they hoped to deliver, they’ll start the 2020 push to the mushy middle.
In the mushy middle, there’s no wall battle that doesn’t include a major trade-off for amnesty. In the mushy middle, the crowning achievement leading up to 2020 will be Senator Chuck Schumer’s extremely costly infrastructure bill. In the mushy middle, Planned Parenthood gets funded, Obamacare gets left alone, and Red Flag Gun laws spread through the states with the blessing of the White House.
If the President is able to get Independents to say, “Hmm, that sounds good,” then it’s a different story. Instead of infrastructure being a crowning achievement, it becomes a bargaining chip. A bipartisan Obamacare fix has a chance of making it through as long as it checks most of the boxes both sides want. Everything else on the agenda that would be stalled by the House would give the GOP ammunition to make their case for taking back control.
Of course, the big announcement during the SOTU will be what the President says about the wall. Here’s how I’d love to see it play out. He leads by announcing he has initiated a plan to start wall construction immediately because negotiations with Congress have been unfruitful. He declares there won’t be a government shutdown in a week because he intends to sign the CR when it hits his desk. Then, he says he’ll go into details about the wall shortly, but first he wants to cover other issues.
This will keep people glued to their screens through the end.
After delivering the bulk of the speech, he announces he’s instructed his Secretary of Defense to work with law enforcement agencies along the border by invoking 10 U.S.C. 284. There will be no more shutdown threats. There will be no national emergency declaration.
Democrats will not be prepared for this with their response. They may be able to recover and get some talking points up on the teleprompter, but it won’t be the smooth, well-planned response they’ve had ready for several days now.
If the President’s #SOTU holds the attention of enough Americans and makes Democrats generally appear as the dangerous fools conservatives already know they are, then it can set the GOP up nicely for an agenda-driven 2020 election season.
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