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Immigration

The real reason Republicans aren’t pressing for the border wall

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The real reason Republicans arent pressing for the border wall

A Tweet by conservative commentator David Limbaugh caught my attention today. I was a little surprised that Limbaugh, one of the most astute and underrated voices in the conservative movement, was wondering why the GOP has been dragging their feet on both the border wall and making tax cuts permanent. Then it occurred to me that if Limbaugh didn’t see it, maybe others weren’t seeing it either.

Here’s the Tweet:

The tax cuts can’t be made permanent through reconciliation. Otherwise, I believe they would have at least tried. The border wall, on the other hand, could be funded quite easily during the lame duck session on Capitol Hill. We know it will be nearly impossible to get the wall funded once Democrats take over the House of Representatives next session, so why isn’t the GOP pushing for it now while they have the chance?

Answer: The wall is part of their 2020 election strategy.

The GOP succeeded in 2010, 2014, and 2016 because of fear of Obamacare. It was a bluff, of course. All of it was. They never intended to repeal it as they promised for six years. They wanted to change it, perhaps make it more palatable, but it’s hard to change the status quo when so much money is wrapped up in it. That’s why they put a clean repeal bill on President Obama’s desk in 2015 for him to veto but couldn’t put anything on President Trump’s desk while they had the power to do so. Most will blame Senator John McCain, but he was just part of the reason they couldn’t do it. In the end, they read the tea leaves and figured they couldn’t afford to rock the boat ahead of the 2018 midterms. It was a terrible miscalculation, but it’s done.

Either way, Obamacare repeal is essentially off the table.

Now, they need other items to run on in 2020. The border wall is one of them. They want to drive voters in 2020 by telling them Democrats are blocking their efforts to build the border wall. They’ll bet on the news-cycle-centered mentality of modern American society that makes people forget the GOP is squandering the opportunity they have right now to fund the border wall. It’ll work, too. By the time 2020 rolls around, everyone who wants a border wall will blame Democrats for blocking it.

The wall is unlikely to be their premier plank. Candidate Trump hammered it hard in 2016. He’ll need to run on the premise that he fulfilled his promises and has new ones to get done in order to make America great again. But he’ll mention the wall. Republicans on (or hoping to be on) Capitol Hill will point fingers at Democrats for preventing the wall from being built. They’ll tread lightly but nonetheless they’ll push the idea forward.

“If you want the wall, we need your help,” their messaging will say.

2020 GOP candidates will push the notion that to build the wall, they’ll need to regain control of the House while maintaining control of the Senate. What Republican voters should be asking is why they didn’t fund the wall when they had the chance in 2018.

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Immigration

President declares national emergency. Now the craziness begins.

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President declares national emergency Now the craziness begins

As expected, President Trump signed the omnibus to keep the government from a second shutdown. Then, as expected, he declared a national emergency at the southern border to allow his administration to free up funds for the building of a wall at our southern border.

Now, the expectations shift to how Democrats will attack this move. During his announcement of the national emergency, the President noted he’s aware of how the process is going to go: lawsuits, appeals, more lawsuits, more appeals… and eventually it will be decided by the Supreme Court.

Reactions on social media were mixed.

My Take

From here, it goes insane. It should be noted the President made what many are considering a mistake when he said he “didn’t have to” declare an emergency but wanted the wall built faster. That seems like grounds to attack the declaration itself.

 


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Democrats

Losers all around: Untangling the border bill that benefits literally zero Americans

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Losers all around Untangling the border bill that benefits literally zero Americans

The Senate and House just put a bill on the President’s desk that he intends to sign. This bill will keep the government funded for most of the year and has many components worth discussing within its 1200 pages. For this discussion, let’s look specifically at the border security components because there seems to be losers across the board without a single winner in sight… at least not from this country.

First, let’s look at the two parties.

Democrats lose the political clout that would have come from a bipartisan agreement to fund the border wall. While most on the left see it as a win that they were able to put together a bill that snuck in so many atrocious immigration loopholes (which we’ll cover below), those loopholes will be used to demonstrate how bad their border policy really is.

But it would all be worth it to them if the wall never got built, at least politically speaking for 2020. The wall is President Trump’s post-midterm achievement if he can get a good chunk of it built, so stopping him from doing so would have been a win. There’s still a chance it can be a win for the Democrats if the White House doesn’t play their cards right. The national emergency declaration may or may not get the wall started before the election, so they’ll need to invoke 10 U.S.C. 284 to get it going sooner rather than later.

Of course, the biggest loss for Democrats is their own policies. It may not have the immediate negative impact necessary to affect them in 2020, but it will have a negative impact nonetheless. As drug cartels and criminal illegal immigrants benefit from the insane policies they put in the bill, the only defense the Democrats will have is that a majority of Republicans backed it as well.

Republicans lose because this deal demonstrates their weakness. They were too weak to fight the border wall battle when they had control of the House, Senate, and White House simultaneously. There’s no reason to expect them to have grown a backbone since the midterms, and this bill proves they did not.

They folded on the border wall dollars. They folded on the restrictions placed on the border wall itself. They folded on the number of beds set aside for detained illegal immigrants. They folded on the allowance of what can only be construed as amnesty for future illegal border crossing unaccompanied minor sponsors (it’s a mouthful, but we’ll get into those protections a bit later).

In short, they folded on nearly everything and put the President in a position where his only viable option was to declare the national emergency. Sadly, it means the GOP not only accomplished nothing since the shutdown began, but also demonstrated the shutdown could have easily been avoided by simply caving then instead of waiting two months to cave.

Now, let’s look at everyone other than the parties themselves.

President Trump loses because this deal makes the shutdown look meaningless. It also exposes him to the wrath of conservatives who are both unhappy with the deal itself and infuriated by the massive overreach the national emergency declaration represents.

The only possible way for him to make it out of this mess with chances still intact for a reelection win are if three very specific things happen:

  1. He has to get a good chunk of the wall built before the election.
  2. Crime and illegal immigration numbers must go down before the election.
  3. Somehow, the negative components of this deal cannot come back to haunt him, though that seems unlikely at this point because the negatives are so numerous and utterly horrendous.

But the worst loss of all for the President is that it will be very hard for him to spin the use of a national emergency and creative appropriations to build a wall when he said literally hundreds of times that Mexico was going to pay for it. Yes, this catchy line helped him win the primaries and possibly even the general election, but it’s turning into such an inaccurate campaign promise that it can’t even be called a broken promise anymore. At this point, it appears to be a bald-faced campaign lie.

Most of all, the American people lose, This will be demonstrated on so many levels over the next couple of years that it will be hard to keep track of every instance that this bill makes us less safe, wastes our money, steals from our prosperity potential, and undercuts our sovereignty.

I’ll let Twitter explain this even further:

And the winner is…

Drug cartels, criminal illegal immigrants, and anyone willing and able to take advantage of Washington DC’s stupidity are the only winners from the border omnibus deal. National emergency declarations cannot take away from how bad this is. In fact, it may make it worse.

 


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Immigration

Border omnibus passes Senate

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Border omnibus passes Senate

The “deal,” which we noted earlier was awful, just passed the Senate.

Democrats who are running for President in 2020 plus Ed “Green New Deal” Markey voted against it. On the Republican side, several conservatives also voted against it, including Ted Cruz, Rand Paul, Ben Sasse, and newcomer Mike Braun.

My Take

I’ll openly admit I was very hopeful (gullible?) when I heard there was a border wall deal Republicans supported that would avert another government shutdown and supply funding for the border wall. That was until I read the details.

This bill allows a provision for illegal immigrants who claim to be “potential” sponsors for unaccompanied children to essentially get instant amnesty. Seriously.

Here’s just a sampling of responses on Twitter:

The details are unbelievably bad. I know some of our writers support the deal, but as editor I have to state officially that this isn’t a border security bill. It hampers border security. It’s unfathomable that so many Republicans support it. Only conservatives in the Senate voted against it. Very sad.

 


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