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Rasmussen, the poll that got it mostly right in 2016, gives Republicans the generic poll edge



Rasmussen the poll that got it right in 2016 gives Republicans the generic poll edge

Rasmussen Reports, which nailed the 2016 popular vote predictions and came in second in accuracy for the electoral college among the eleven major polls, released its final generic congressional poll today. It has Republicans leading by 1%.

If you’re watching mainstream media, you’re probably hearing about the “blue wave” that’s likely going to happen on Tuesday. Most analysts are giving the House of Representatives to the Democrats. Yes, the same analysts who we’re very confident Hillary Clinton would win the White House and Democrats would win the Senate in 2016 are trying to convince American voters that if they’re voting Republican, they should probably just stay home. There’s no hope for Republicans in the media’s narrative.

But Rasmussen is telling a different story, one you won’t hear on mainstream media since it doesn’t match the narrative.

Just as one of our analysts predicted a 219-216 edge for Republicans keeping a House majority, so too does Rasmussen show the blue wave falling short of expectations. Democrats will definitely pick up some seats. There is zero chance the Republicans can gain seats in the House, but it’s seeming more and more likely they won’t lose the 24 seats Democrats need in order to take control and put Nancy Pelosi in the Speaker’s chair.

Unlike most polls that base their results on 400-1000 people, Rasmussen based their results on 2500 likely voters. That allows them to keep a smaller 2% margin of error with 95% confidence level. The survey also revealed that African-Americans were the only racial group that supports Democrats more.

Generic Congressional Ballot – Rasmussen Reports® now lead among men and those 40 and over. Democrats have the advantage among women and younger voters.

Blacks overwhelmingly prefer the Democrat. The Republican has small leads among whites and other minority voters.

In the U.S. House of Representatives, all 435 seats are on November’s ballot. Republicans now have a 47-seat majority in the House, so Democrats need to take away 24 GOP seats to gain control.

The only way Democrats can win control of the House on Tuesday is if Republican voters listen to the mainstream media narrative. If we actually go out and vote, the House and Senate will remain red. Period.


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1 Comment

1 Comment

  1. Tuck Frump

    November 7, 2018 at 5:17 pm

    How’d that work out for you?

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