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Rasmussen, the poll that got it mostly right in 2016, gives Republicans the generic poll edge

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Rasmussen the poll that got it right in 2016 gives Republicans the generic poll edge

Rasmussen Reports, which nailed the 2016 popular vote predictions and came in second in accuracy for the electoral college among the eleven major polls, released its final generic congressional poll today. It has Republicans leading by 1%.

If you’re watching mainstream media, you’re probably hearing about the “blue wave” that’s likely going to happen on Tuesday. Most analysts are giving the House of Representatives to the Democrats. Yes, the same analysts who we’re very confident Hillary Clinton would win the White House and Democrats would win the Senate in 2016 are trying to convince American voters that if they’re voting Republican, they should probably just stay home. There’s no hope for Republicans in the media’s narrative.

But Rasmussen is telling a different story, one you won’t hear on mainstream media since it doesn’t match the narrative.

Just as one of our analysts predicted a 219-216 edge for Republicans keeping a House majority, so too does Rasmussen show the blue wave falling short of expectations. Democrats will definitely pick up some seats. There is zero chance the Republicans can gain seats in the House, but it’s seeming more and more likely they won’t lose the 24 seats Democrats need in order to take control and put Nancy Pelosi in the Speaker’s chair.

Unlike most polls that base their results on 400-1000 people, Rasmussen based their results on 2500 likely voters. That allows them to keep a smaller 2% margin of error with 95% confidence level. The survey also revealed that African-Americans were the only racial group that supports Democrats more.

Generic Congressional Ballot – Rasmussen Reports®

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/generic_congressional_ballot_nov05Republicans now lead among men and those 40 and over. Democrats have the advantage among women and younger voters.

Blacks overwhelmingly prefer the Democrat. The Republican has small leads among whites and other minority voters.

In the U.S. House of Representatives, all 435 seats are on November’s ballot. Republicans now have a 47-seat majority in the House, so Democrats need to take away 24 GOP seats to gain control.

The only way Democrats can win control of the House on Tuesday is if Republican voters listen to the mainstream media narrative. If we actually go out and vote, the House and Senate will remain red. Period.

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1 Comment

1 Comment

  1. Tuck Frump

    November 7, 2018 at 5:17 pm

    How’d that work out for you?

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News

In Jordan’s ancient Petra, sirens warn of flash floods

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In Jordans ancient Petra sirens warn of flash floods

PETRA, Jordan (AP) — In ancient times, Arab tribesmen dug diversion tunnels to protect their low-lying trading post of Petra against desert flash floods. More than two millennia later, an alarm system warns visitors if flood water rushes toward what has become Jordan’s main tourist attraction.

Earlier this month, the alarms were activated for the first time, said Hussein al-Hasanat of the Petra Development & Tourism Region Authority. Sirens blared minutes before a torrent fed by heavy rains approached the UNESCO World Heritage site carved into rose-hued rock face.

Hundreds of tourists were able to seek higher ground and were later evacuated, he said.

Amateur video posted online at the time showed visitors running through a steep, narrow canyon leading to the Treasury, Petra’s main draw, as guides urged them to hurry. Later, visitors were seen standing on a higher patch near the Treasury as knee-high water poured through the canyon.

Elsewhere in Jordan, such alarms are still missing. Thirty-four people were killed in flash floods in late September and early November.

The last fatal flash flood struck Petra in 1963 when 22 French tourists and a local guide were killed by rapidly rising waters. In response, Jordan’s Department of Antiquities built a dam to keep water from entering the canyon leading to the Treasury.

In 2014, the alarm system was installed as added protection, with sirens set to go off when flood water rises above a certain level.

On Nov. 9, the system was triggered for the first time, through a computer in the Petra Authority’s control room. The computer is connected to eight rain forecast systems and two water detection stations placed in the area, within 8 kilometers (5 miles) of Petra.

The network generates instant data allowing officials to measure possible danger and warn people by the time the water reaches Petra.

Omar Dajani, a meteorologist at the Arabia Weather company, said alarms should be installed in all vulnerable areas in Jordan.

He said urban sprawl has exacerbated the flood risk, which is particularly high in dry areas.

“Now towns have spread so much and many of them were not built with respect for the geography of the region, such as valleys for example, where the water has naturally caused floods for millions of years,” Dajani said.

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News

Brenda Snipes resigns as Broward County elections supervisor

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Brenda Snipes resigns as Broward County elections supervisor

The nightmare is over. Brenda Snipes, the Broward County elections supervisor who we believe is either incompetent, corrupt, or both, has submitted her resignation.

I think I have served the purpose that I came here for, which was to provide a credible election product for our voters,” she said in her resignation press conference.

Florida finalized election tallies earlier today after a hand count confirmed the original results. Rick Scott was confirmed as the next Senator, unseating Senator Bill Nelson (D-FL).

It may be a bittersweet end to the 75-year-old’s tenure. She seemed more at ease during the press conference than she has since entering the spotlight once again the day after the midterm elections when Broward County failed to report ongoing results as required by Florida law.

Brenda Snipes submits her resignation as Broward elections supervisor

https://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/politics/fl-ne-brenda-snipes-resigns-20181118-story.htmlDuring the final days of the recount, Snipes looked exhausted to people who have known her for years. And she foreshadowed an early departure as elections supervisor when she said last week “it is time to move on” but didn’t specify a timetable, saying she wanted to talk to her family.

Snipes was appointed supervisor of elections in 2003 by former Gov. Jeb Bush, after he removed a previous supervisor of elections for incompetence. Bush became one of her critics last week, writing on Twitter it was time for her to go.

Depending on when her official resignation is effective, either Governor Scott or governor-elect Ron DeSantis will appoint her replacement. The position is coming up for election in 2020.

My Take

It’s good that she’s leaving, but at least a part of me was hoping she’d stay and come under the scrutiny of governor-elect Ron DeSantis before the 2020 election. If there was corruption, then it’s important we learn about it sooner rather than later.

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Guns and Crime

Chipotle knew Masud Omar Ali bragged about dining and dashing before they fired their manager

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Some are cheering on Chipotle for doing the right thing by considering rehiring the manager they fired following a viral video showing her asking African-American patrons to pay up front before placing their order. Evidence has emerged since the firing that the poster of the viral video made a habit of “dining and dashing” at Chipotle and other restaurants, apparently vindicating the manager for her decision to protect the store from theft.

Here’s the problem. According to Matt Palumbo who contacted Chipotle about the incident, they were aware of the history of the customer before they fired their manager.

All of this stems from a viral video posted by Masud Omar Ali

on Twitter.

It ended up getting over 30,000 retweets, 72,000 likes, 5,500 comments, and an astounding 5.5 million views. Many of the comments immediately following the post claimed racism on the part of the manager and Chipotle in general because Mr. Ali is African American. His racially charged Tweet made it seem like all of this was driven by racism.

As it turned out, his own Twitter feed revealed something that he regularly practiced, “dining and dashing.” This is where someone orders food from a restaurant, eats the food, then leaves without paying for it.

Ali seemed quite proud of his thefts and very satisfied that he was able to get someone fired for trying to stop his criminal activities.

Masud Ali Tweet 1

Masud Ali Tweet 2

Masud Ali tweet 3

Now that the “victims” have been exposed as the actual criminals, people on both sides of the aisle are speaking out. Some noted that falsely calling out racism masks real racism. Others talked about the hypocrisy of getting someone fired for trying to stop theft in her store.

This video by self-proclaimed liberal An0maly calls for truth even if it doesn’t fit the narrative of mainstream media, social media, or corporate America.

It’s sad that the truth wasn’t enough to keep Chipotle from firing their manager over false racism. The backlash is what made them act. Even if they rehire her, Chipotle still looks terrible for embracing political correctness in the first place.

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