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This was supposed to be the election with Brett Kavanaugh and migrant caravans as the talking points to debate. Both favored Republicans and the polls rewarded them with gains. Then, pipe bombs and a massacre at a Pittsburgh synagogue changed the conversation to a topic that doesn’t favor the Republicans: President Trump’s tone. So, he changed the conversation back.
Some will call it a hailmary ahead of the election, which it is in many ways. While to most it might seem like a crazy move, we should never underestimate the President’s uncanny ability to use extreme controversy to turn things his way in the end. He did it multiple times during the 2016 election and that turned out well for him. Will this be another example of campaign strategy bucking the norm to yield the results he really wants?
For background, here’s the story:
Trump plans to sign executive order curbing birthright citizenship: report
President Trump said in a newly released interview he plans to sign an executive order ending so-called “birthright citizenship” for babies of non-citizens born on U.S. soil — a move that would mark a major overhaul of immigration policy and trigger an almost-certain legal battle.
Birthright citizenship allows any baby born on U.S. soil to automatically be a U.S. citizen.
Reactions so far have been exactly as expected. Many on the right are calling this a good move and debating the constitutionality of it all. Nearly all on the left are calling it a racist move and debating the constitutionality of it all. Today, everyone on Twitter is a constitutional scholar or expert.
I don’t make such claims and I don’t think the President thinks that, either. What does, however, know two things with a near certainty:
- Any executive order will be challenged all the way up to the Supreme Court.
- This will be the talking point for Republican and Democratic candidates for a day or two. It could even carry all the way through to the election.
The President is banking on a silent majority to feel that someone coming here illegally to have children with the sole intent of staying in America and receiving our benefits is wrong. He doesn’t care (yet) whether or not it’s constitutional. He doesn’t really care (yet) if his executive order sticks. In fact, he may not even sign such an order.
But the conversation has changed. That’s the whole point.
Depending on where they are, Republican candidates can handle this in whatever way they feel will help them the most for the election. Some are already using it to strike a different pose than the President, such as Bob Hugin who is in a tight race in deep-blue New Jersey.
The President is wrong to end #BirthrightCitizenship. I took an oath to defend the Constitution including the 14th Amendment. We’re a nation of immigrants made better by the diversity of its people, especially in NJ. We need compassionate comprehensive immigration reform now. -BH
— Bob Hugin (@BobHugin) October 30, 2018
It doesn’t matter whether this is used to stir up the President’s base in red or purple states or to allow Republican candidates to break away from the President in blue states. The bottom line is this is exactly where the President wants the conversation. It’s a risky move, one that I’d personally call a mistake if I hadn’t been proven wrong by so many of his past campaign moves. This time, I’m putting surface logic to the side and waiting to see how it pans out.
If Republicans retain control of the House, it will be because of this strategically timed move by President Trump. He and his team seem to know the pulse of American voters very well. We’ll see if this move brings the red wave he wants.
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