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Who is lying about Jamal Khashoggi, Turkey or Saudi Arabia?

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Who is lying about Jamal Khashoggi Turkey or Saudi Arabia

In the case of journalist Jamal Khashoggi’s disappearance, either the Turks or the Saudis are lying. For all intents and purposes, it is completely infeasible to believe they are both telling the truth. Either way, Khashoggi, who wrote for the Washington Post and has resided in the United States, is either dead or a prisoner.

Here are the assertions and alleged pieces of evidence Turkey has laid out for the world:

  • Video footage shows Khashoggi entering the Saudi consulate in Istanbul but never leaving
  • Numerous cameras at the compound were allegedly not recording at the time of his visit
  • A 15-member Saudi “kill team” has been identified
  • The team was seen entering the compound when Khashoggi was there
  • Despite offering to allow an entry, the Saudis have not allowed any Turkish investigators into the compound
  • The Saudis claim he left unharmed, but no evidence has been provided to back this claim and no video footage of him outside the compound after he entered has been found
  • Khashoggi’s fiancee waited outside for him and has not seen him since he entered

All of this, if true, is pretty damaging to the Saudi’s claim that he left unharmed. However, before we jump to the obvious conclusion, let’s first consider a few things. First, the video evidence presented by Turkey has been heavily edited and contains inconsistencies, according to the Washington Post.

We have a likely case of murder or kidnap by the Saudis, but there’s still a chance that Turkey is attempting to frame them. There really aren’t any other viable possibilities.

That means one of them is lying. We’re not talking about little lies. Either Turkey or Saudi Arabia has captured or killed Khashoggi and is in the process of trying to cover it up. While all the evidence points to Saudi Arabia, the evidence is all provided by Turkey. If they were responsible, then it would be easy for them to compile this information and pin it on the Saudis.

If I were to put percentages to the likelihood of guilt, it would be 90/10 that Turkey is telling the truth and Saudi Arabia is covering up an abduction and/or murder. Unfortunately, it’s not quite certain enough to dismiss Turkey altogether.

What this means to us

Both countries are sort of allies. Turkey is our NATO ally and the Saudis have been our second best partners in the Middle East with Israel being our best. Whoever perpetrated this crime and coverup should no longer be our allies in any regard. Both nations are important to the United States, though Saudi Arabia is much more important as the both the catalyst for a future Middle East peace deal as well as one of the forces that props up the U.S. economy despite over $21 trillion worth of debt.

None of that matters if they murdered Khashoggi. We cannot allow our government to do business with a regime that perpetrates this type of crime against someone with deep U.S. ties. He was critical of the Saudi government, which may be enough of a motive to order a hit. Or, it could have been something else. Regardless of why he was abducted and/or killed, it would be unacceptable to continue our positive relationship with them.

Some would argue that it’s just one life that is outweighed by the importance of Saudi Arabia’s (or Turkey’s) friendship during these tumultuous times, but that’s not how we work. That’s not the American way. “Just one life” is too many for a government to take in cold blood.

The whole truth may never been known to the general public. One thing is certain: whoever abducted or killed Khashoggi should be immediately removed from any aid or weapons sales agreements we currently have in place.

Update: Senator Rand Paul has the same idea, though he’s apparently 100% certain it was the Saudis who perpetrated the act.

Foreign Affairs

Saudi Arabia issues warning over “false accusations”

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Saudi Arabia issues warning over false accusations

Representative John Ratcliffe (R-TX) took to Fox News to try to bring calm to an escalating situation. Saudi Arabia has been accused of murdering Jamal Khashoggi, a Washington Post journalist who has been outspoken against the Saudi regime.

He points out that Saudi Arabia’s threats and proposed actions against them are premature. Until we see the evidence Turkey has against them, we must presume innocence, Ratcliffe said.

My Take

The Representative is right and wrong. He’s right that we shouldn’t act against the Saudis until we know for use. Then again, the evidence that U.S. officials have almost certainly seen and/or heard is enough to make pro-Saudi groups in Washington DC squirm. Then, there are the previous and ongoing abuses Saudi Arabia has committed that must be considered.

Backing away from our relationship with Saudi Arabia will hurt. Backing down to their threats is inexcusable. The White House is in a real pickle on this one.

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Foreign Affairs

Mike Pence calls out the reality in China

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Mike Pence calls out the reality in China

Headlines have been popping up for over a decade that China is embracing Western-style freedoms for its people. Some variation of praise and hope have littered our news wires for some time, yet the incremental changes that are so often touted rarely turn into anything substantial and are often replaced by setbacks.

The economy is still far from free. Access to information television and internet is heavily controlled. Religious activities must be held in secret. This isn’t the China we’ve been promised.

It’s not the China the government has been promising its people.

Vice President Mike Pence drew criticism from leftists who found his recent comments inflammatory, but at this point does it really even matter? After three presidencies that treated China like the great reformers they’re not, isn’t it about time we try to use honest words and aggressive actions to call them out rather than allow them to continue their expansion unchecked?

Remarks by Vice President Pence on the Administration’s Policy Toward China

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/remarks-vice-president-pence-administrations-policy-toward-china/Previous administrations made this choice in the hope that freedom in China would expand in all of its forms -– not just economically, but politically, with a newfound respect for classical liberal principles, private property, personal liberty, religious freedom — the entire family of human rights. But that hope has gone unfulfilled.

The dream of freedom remains distant for the Chinese people. And while Beijing still pays lip service to “reform and opening,” Deng Xiaoping’s famous policy now rings hollow.

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Foreign Affairs

Saudi Arabia has three choices

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Saudi Arabia has three choices on how to handle the Jamal Khashoggi situation

Washington Post journalist Jamal Khashoggi was very likely kidnapped, tortured, and murdered by a Saudi Arabian kill squad at the Saudi consulate in Turkey. All the evidence points to them and despite their denials, they haven’t put up a shred of evidence in their defense.

Now, the Kingdom is faced with three ways to handle the situation.

Admit some of the truth but pin it on a scapegoat

Mohammed bin Salman, crown prince and unofficial ruler of the Kingdom, was almost certainly the person who gave the order to take out Khashoggi. Decisions like these are not made by lesser officials or specific agencies without at least getting MBS’ blessing. Considering much of Khashoggi’s negative commentary about the Kingdom was directed at MBS, it would make sense for the man in charge to be the one who made the call.

While it’s hard for many of us who are paying attention to believe MBS wasn’t involved, the spin machine, political clout, and mainstream media pressure owned by Saudis is tremendous. This is the same nation that positioned itself as one of our prime partners in the war on terror despite having direct connections to the 9/11 terrorist attacks. It’s also the same nation that spreads Wahhabism, one of the most extreme ideologies in Islam, around the globe while somehow having a public sentiment towards them that does not match. Ask your average American where they are on the extremism scale and they’ll be ranked as mostly moderate. After all, they let some women drive now!

With all this in mind, they could say, “Yes, there was an order to kill Khashoggi but it came from [insert low ranking scapegoat official]. The regime in general and MBS in particular just found out about it today after an internal investigation revealed [scapegoat] has a personal vendetta against Khashoggi because he [insert fabricated accusation]. The Kingdom apologizes to Khashoggi’s family and fiancee. We only wish we could have discovered the plot soon enough to prevent it from happening.”

In that scenario, as unbelievable as it is, the U.S. government would almost certainly forgive it following a token sanction or public scolding. We’d be back to normal relations within a month.

While this might seem like the easiest road to take, it’s also the least likely. Western thought accepts this as a logical way to cover it up and sweep it under the rug, but Saudi Arabia is conspicuous in their unwillingness to acknowledge any wrongdoing in any manner, ever.

Keep denying and hope their spin machine works

As mentioned above, the amount of control Saudi Arabia has in the United States is immense. It isn’t just the oil. They directly pay media, think tanks, lobbyists, and consultants who aid them in funneling money to all the right people.

If anyone can make a story disappear, it’s Saudi Arabia.

But this particular story may have legs that are too strong to trip up. Journalists are not accustomed to burying stories about journalists getting murdered and the Washington Post has clout of its own. As crazy as it sounds today, it’s still possible that they can make it fall in an active news cycle.

The midterm elections may not come soon enough for them, though.

This is the most likely scenario.

Keep denying but change the story to Russia and China

An interesting and potentially dangerous tactic may be for Saudi Arabia to become indignant towards the accumulated accusations towards them. They could start making threats and working with non-allies to change the tone of the story altogether.

By going to Russia and/or China, the mere threat of fundamentally changing the relationship with the United States over accusations it denies could be enough to force Washington DC to ease the pressure on them. Of all the scenarios, this is the one the White House fears the most. It won’t reduce coverage. It would force coverage to expand as leftist mainstream media ties the Saudis’ offenses to their nemesis in the Oval Office.

President Trump and Jared Kushner have worked hard to make the Saudi-US relationship stronger than it’s been in decades. They need that relationship if there’s any hope of brokering a peace deal in the Middle East. Even if we dismiss the economic blowback from a contentious relationship between Riyadh and Washington DC, the foreign affairs effects alone would be devastating.

The President has to play hardball, at least to an American public that wants repercussions against a murderous regime. If the Saudis start playing hardball as well, it could cause major issues that affect elections, hurt the economy, and end hope for reaching a peace deal any time soon.

Whatever path the Saudis choose, one thing is certain. The United States should not be in bed with a regime that will murder someone who works in the United States and has permanent legal residence here. That’s not what allies do to each other.

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