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Will Iran back out of the Iran nuclear deal?

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There seems to be two different narratives forming in Iran from the two seats of power. President Hassan Rouhani is pushing for Europe to figure out a way to salvage the deal and stop United States’ sanctions against Iran while Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is saying it’s time to give up hope on Europe being able to act on their behalf.

Rouhani is under increasing pressure to figure something out as every economic indicator in Iran is failing. It’s the worst recession the Middle East nation has seen in decades and shows no signs of getting better any time soon.

For this reason, it is very likely Iran will end up backing out of the deal. Without the United States participating, there’s very little reason for them to continue. They will need to engage even more with Russia and China, potentially even giving up more than they’d like in order to avoid a Venezuela-style collapse.

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Foreign Affairs

Netanyahu praises new U.S. sanctions on Iran

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Netanyahu praises new US sanctions on Iran

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu praised President Trump for reimposing sanctions on Iran following his withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal earlier this year. These actions against the shared foe have been called for by the Israeli government since the agreement was first signed by President Obama.

“Thank you, President Trump, for this historic move. The sanctions are indeed coming,” Netanyahu said in a statement.

His statement was a direct response to a Tweet the President sent out that mimicked a popular Game of Thrones line.

Many associated with the HBO show as well as a ton of the show’s left-leaning fans took great offense. HBO itself even Tweeted out a threat.

The sanctions, confirmed Friday, will take effect Monday. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said, “These sanctions will target the core of Iran’s economy and they are far tougher than any sanctions that have previously been imposed on Iran.”

These sanctions are layered. The first layer prohibits any company that trades with Iran from doing business in the United States. The second layer targets domestic companies who do business with companies that do business with Iran.

It’s this second layer of sanctions that will be most effective, as the United States’ business sector will have much further reach when they tell their partners, suppliers, and distributors abroad that they won’t be working with them any longer.

Most in the EU, which wishes to maintain the status quo within the parameters of the nuclear deal despite America dropping out, are working towards finding workarounds that will allow them to continue to trade with Iran while not jeopardizing their relationships with American companies.

According to the BBC, the EU workarounds won’t work for long.

Can Iran survive sanctions?

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-46059036Even with the EU plan in place, the costs of doing any Iran-related business could still be too high for many companies.

For example, even if the shipping operator were to purchase oil through the SPV mechanism, the company insuring the cargo may still face the threat of secondary sanctions and the potential loss of all its business in the United States.

Iran’s economy isn’t directly reliant on the US financial system, says Richard Nephew, a sanctions expert and senior researcher at Columbia University.

“But the issue is that most of Iran’s biggest trading partners do and that affects their readiness to put at risk their access to the United States to do business with Iran.”

My Take

Iran will not be able to last long under these conditions. It’s imperative that the United States uses this to make clear what we expect from Iran going forward.

This isn’t just about nuclear weapons. Iran’s non-nuclear arsenal is regularly used against American interests, including Israel. They do this normally through proxies like Hamas and Hezbollah, but they’ve been more directly involved in regional conflicts, including the wars in Yemen and Syria as well as domestic disputes in Iraq.

For these sanctions to be effective, the United States will need others in the international community to help set clear expectations of Iran’s future. That includes helping their own people, towards which Tehran has been remiss for decades.

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Foreign Affairs

Why is the media silent on the ongoing migrant exodus from Venezuela?

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Why is the media silent on the ongoing migrant exodus from Venezuela

Being a danger to the Democrats, the ‘migrant caravan’ disappeared from the headlines, meanwhile they still ignore the mass exodus from 21st century socialism

Having once been merely biased towards the Left, the national media has become blatantly partisan to the extreme. The ‘Migrant Caravan’ story has been particularly egregious in this regard. From the outset, they propagandised effort until it became clear it was a threat to Democratic midterm narratives. They’ve also ignored the ongoing humanitarian disaster and mass exodus from the ‘21st century socialism’ of Venezuela, Nicaragua and Cuba while they feign compassion for the poor and downtrodden.

Of course, the illegal invader columns of the ‘Migrant Caravan’ are a stark reminder of what would happen were we to hand power to the Democrats. It’s been reported that up to 150 Million people from around the globe would like to migrate to the states. An invasion of that magnitude would be ‘fundamental transformation’, turning the country into another version of the a 3rd world nation. Even worse, the media of the nation’s Socialist-Left has ignored the exodus from the ideology they champion.

Chastity Mansfield detailed 3 facts about the migrant caravan that everyone (even Democrats) should know. It should be clear that criminals are part of the Caravan. That it’s composed mainly of young men and that the offer by Mexico to have them settle in that country has been a bust.

The other mass exoduses the Leftist media doesn’t want to talk about.

Meanwhile, there has been another ‘migration’ the media hasn’t noticed, that would be the mass exodus from the socialist ‘Utopia’ of Venezuela. For example, there is this report from May 2017 on the Brazilian Border Towns Bracing for Massive Wave of Venezuelan Refugees.

Or this article from Sep 18, 2018: Cuba, not the US, is to Blame for the Mass Exodus from Nicaragua and Venezuela.

Then there is this story from Oct 1, 2018 Venezuela Has Lost 13% of its Population in the Mass Exodus from Socialism.

Venezuela’s humanitarian crisis is causing refugee flows that may exceed those of the Syrian Civil War.

Venezuela has lost more than 13% of its population in the wake of the mass wave of migration caused by the so-called “socialism of the 21st century”, which has had dramatic effect on the other countries of the region due to the serious humanitarian crisis.

Official figures from the International Organization of Migration (IOM) indicate that between 2015 and 2017, Venezuelan emigration more than doubled, increasing from 700,000 people to 1.5 million.

The media seems to take pride in being compassionate, and yet they don’t seem to care about those fleeing from the ideology they advocate. In the case of these refugees from socialism, they receive little outside help. This is contrasted by the behind the scenes assistance that has to be present in the case of the ‘Migrant Caravan’. They also aren’t making a beeline for the U.S. Border for all of the promised freebies.

Venezuelans Set Out to Cross the Continent on Foot.

OAS: Regional Crisis of Venezuelan Mass Migration Demands Unified Response.

According to United Nations estimates, close to 2.3 million Venezuelans have left their country because of the political, social and economic crisis, and of those, almost a million have settled in Colombia.

This is clearly an ongoing humanitarian problem and yet the media doesn’t care, why? Could it be that this would be a profound repudiation of those of the nation’s Socialist-Left who are trying to shove their societal slavery down our throats?

The Takeaway.

It’s rather interesting that the Left played up the narrative of the ‘Migrant Caravan’ for a time for it’s propaganda effects. Until they realized its damaging effects on Democratic electoral chances. Meanwhile they ignored an ongoing humanitarian disaster and similar Migrant exodus.

In the first instance, it was to somehow embarrass those on the Right for having this take place. In the second, they have to pretend it’s not really happening because it is a perfect reminder why the Left should never be within reach of the levers of power. Their system of government doesn’t work no matter how many times it’s never been tried, something to be reminded of on Election Day.

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Foreign Affairs

Why Erdogan’s Syria summit that excludes the United States is a good thing

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Why Erdogans Syria summit that excludes the United States is a good thing

Turkey has been systematically cutting ties with the United States for several years now. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been exploring improved relations with Europe, Russia, and China, though has found limited success. One of his biggest victories is coming up as Istanbul hosts leaders from Russia, France, and Germany to discuss the future of Syria.

Washington DC has had their feathers ruffled ever since it was announced the United States would not be included in the summit. This is unnecessary. In fact, it’s a positive thing that others are willing to take the lead in a nation that should hold very little interest to the United States.

If they’re willing to take the lead financially in rebuilding Syria as well, then our exclusion is a wonderful thing.

For too long, America has not only been the police force of the world but has also been knee deep in addressing humanitarian concerns such as the turmoil that has engulfed Syria for half-a-decade. The problems in Syria have dramatic effects outside of the nation as refugees continue to flood Europe. Meanwhile, Russia has maintained a military presence there, a move that troubles DC. If it weren’t for that fact, it’s possible we wouldn’t even be offended by our exclusion at the summit.

Even with Russia’s increased Middle Eastern presence, the benefits of not getting involved greatly outweigh the threats of Russia’s military presence there. Our focus on this important region must be on allies like Israel, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt while also keeping an eye on enemies such as Iran, Hezbollah, and Hamas. Syria is only a relevant player as a passageway for weapons to reach the enemies of Israel.

Our presence at the summit is not necessary to assist Israel in that regard.

Interested parties must be allowed to act on their own when our own interests are not in play. Those who argue Syria’s strategic importance to the United States could make similar arguments about nearly every nation in the Middle East, Asia, and Europe. It’s easy to find tangential importance to our interests.

When seen through a lens of discernment devoid of ego, our presence at this and future summits is not necessary. Feathers get ruffled when politicians think, “how dare they meet without us,” instead of what they should be thinking, which is “good for them that they’re stepping up to address their problems without us holding their hands.”

The love-hate relationship between the United States and the rest of the world can be most easily mitigated when we are willing to put our efforts and dollars towards things that directly affect us. Instead, we tend to have a foreign policy that embraces the butterfly-effect. By this flawed thinking, any movement anywhere could eventually affect our interests, so we need to be everywhere at all times.

It’s not sustainable. It never has been.

It’s also not healthy and oftentimes proves to be detrimental to us and the outside interests we try to influence.

If Russia wants their military to not be surrounded by chaos, let them take the lead.

If Germany and France want to rebuild Syria so some of the millions of refugees can return home, let them take the lead.

If Turkey wants to be the center of the Islamic world, let them take the lead.

If China wants to get involved financially, let them take the lead.

As strange as it may seem, we do not have to be isolationists to recognize the need for other countries to step up. Our absence in Syria will not hurt the rebuilding process, nor will it reduce our influence in the region. Let them handle it.

Reference

Turkey’s Erdogan Hosts Syria Summit Without US

https://www.voanews.com/a/european-russian-leaders-join-erdogan-at-summit-on-syrian-civil-war/4630443.htmlMoscow has said the Idlib deal is working and Ankara is complying with its side of the agreement. Under the terms of the deal, Ankara agreed to secure the withdrawal of radical groups and rebel heavy weapons from a newly created demilitarized zone between rebel and regime forces.

French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel are expected to use the summit to work on consolidating the Idlib deal.

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