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Democrats

Border wall is not worth DACA

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There’s a lot of talk about a DACA deal in Congress. Trump supporters are left wondering how true to his campaign promises he will stay. It seems as though conflicting reports come out every day now about Trump’s stance on immigration reform.

Still, most of the Trump supporters I see have faith in Donald Trump and a number think he’s playing 4D chess. Spoiler alert, he’s not. Donald Trump is actually handling resistance and stagnation in Congress. And it appears a compromise is in the works. It’s not 4D chess, it’s choosing what ground you are willing to concede and what goals you prioritize achieving.

The Priorities

The GOP side seems split on the priorities. While a border wall is the most known, Trump is very concerned about ending chain migration in favor of a more merit-based system.

The supposed DACA Deal will likely weigh one of these priorities over the other, especially as Democrats oppose both. The Democrats have been campaigning hard on DACA, which shows that this is their practical priority. They believe there is enough public pressure to cause Republicans to bend on DACA.

This is to say that for the time being, Democrats likely aren’t going to push for amnesty. Trump would be committing political suicide to his most rational supporters if he were to favor DACA and amnesty for a border wall and merit-based migration. That being said, Democrats will likely wait until they have the Whitehouse to make that push, or they conveniently won’t support it like DACA during the Obama years.

The Willingness

Some Democrats have expressed great willingness to build a “high tech” wall in exchange for DACA. However, I think the greatest resistance to such a deal will come from Ted Cruz and a band of followers. They won’t be willing to compromise on DACA so easily. The far-far left will likely feel the same way, unwilling to compromise on a border wall or an end to chain migration, let alone any deportations.

So it will likely depend on all of the Senators in the middle, and I haven’t even gotten to the House yet. If Paul Ryan is on board, then he can swing a lot of leverage, however, this might be bad for him in the primary. In similar fashion, Democrats are boasting about taking the House back in 2018. Republicans who compromise on immigration may not receive as much support come November.

The Trump

By the looks of it, Trump is dangling DACA over the heads of Democrats trying to get their support for his legislation. Trump had enough sense to decline whatever deal came his way. I’ve seen criticisms about Trump wanting to sign any immigration bill, but it appears this claim is so far unfounded. That’s good that Trump does have some principled priorities but they don’t seem the exact same as the ones he campaigned on. He still seems a little shaky on his staunch stance. All indications show that Trump is more than willing to cave to Democrats wishes on DACA for his own political gain.

The Votes

Democrats are consistent in their policies. If the unborn could vote, abortion would be abolished. If the “Dreamers” are explicitly given the right to vote, they will more than likely vote for those who gave them that right. It’s the same reason why Democrats push for amnesty. It’s all about securing the votes of groups, identity politics. This is what the Democrats want. If you think they genuinely care about these people, just look at how much voting blue accomplished for predominantly black inner cities.

The Acceptable Deal

If Republicans are so desperate for votes, they’ll seek to concede a little on DACA. The only acceptable deal is one where voting is off the table. Legal status but no citizenship or right to vote. But because they will have domicile, their children will have the right to vote through birthright citizenship. That is as much as Republicans should be willing to give in order to gain a new merit-based immigration system and a wall. That’s a fair deal if you want all that Trump wants.

But honestly, I’d take the wall off the table, for DACA to be off the table. We need a new immigration system. We also need to deport illegals because of how much of a financial drain they’ve become on the taxpayers, safety also being a concern. To me, these should be the conservative priorities.

The Takeaway

Trump campaigned on a wall so he should negotiate for one or risk losing support. Any deal with DACA is likely a bad one that will give Democrats votes for elections to come. But the Senate has 100 members as opposed to the House’s 435 yet moves abysmally slower. Odds are nothing gets through the Senate with regards to immigration, just like healthcare. There’s always 2019 though when the GOP will likely have a few more members. No guarantees though.

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Democrats

Republicans can avert a shutdown if they turn the narrative

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Republicans can avert a shutdown if they turn the narrative

Democrats are giving every reason they can muster to push a government shutdown. The primary tool is DACA. If the government shuts down, it will be because they’re convinced the GOP will get the blame for it. If sentiment turns and the Democrats get fingered for prompting the shutdown, they won’t let it happen.

There are several dynamic situations involved with the shutdown. DACA is only a small part of it. They’re trying to position this as a win-win for them and the Republicans seem to be unable to get the right message out about the shutdown. This isn’t new for them. If the GOP initiates the shutdown as they did during the Obama era, it’s their fault. If they can’t stop the Democrats from initiating a shutdown as is the situation today, it’s their fault as well.

Mainstream media’s desire to promote the Democrats’ message is a big part of the reason the GOP always takes the blame, but it’s not an insurmountable advantage. They need to paint the situation in its proper colors. The GOP has the truth on their side, so they need to say it. Instead, they seem to be cowering as usual:

Nervous Republicans fear they’ll pay if government shuts down

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/nervous-republicans-fear-they-ll-pay-government-shutdown-n838276WASHINGTON — President Donald Trump is confident that Democrats will take the blame if the government shuts down this weekend or Congress fails to find a fix to prevent DACA recipients from being deported. But Republicans on Capitol Hill aren’t so sure.

Many of them fear that voters will fault the GOP after looking at Trump’s decision to end the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program, his past flirtation with letting federal funding expire and the fact that Republicans are in control of the White House, the Senate and the House.

First, they need to attack DACA by framing it as what it is. The President has done his part in saying he wants to protect Dreamers but wants a wall to keep more of them from coming in. That’s a reasonable trade-off in the eyes of most voters.

Second, the GOP needs to unify with the message that they’re going to protect Dreamers the right way through standalone legislative action. Executive orders can’t cut it. Attaching it to other bills isn’t right. They want a DACA plan in place and they can do it if the Democrats would focus on helping Dreamers rather than trying to be the ones who get the credit for it.

Third, they need to declare the Democrats are hurting Americans through a shutdown for the sake of getting credit for helping Dreamers. It’s not just  that they’re putting illegal immigrants over American citizens which is bad enough. They’re doing so in order to get credit from voters. That’s it. That’s the whole reason for the shutdown. They can’t imagine a situation in which the GOP puts forth Dreamer-protecting legislation and a Republican President signs it into law unless it’s the Democrats who somehow force the situation. Otherwise, they might be revealed as the charlatans they are.

If Republican leadership gets everyone on board and pushes out these three simple messages with everything they’ve got, they have a chance of both averting a shutdown and making the Democrats look foolish for threatening it. If they continue down the lukewarm road they’re on, there will be a shutdown and they’ll get the blame for it whether they deserve it or not.

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Democrats

New Jersey’s new governor sees California as progressive model

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New Jerseys new governor sees California as progressive model

The next great progressive Democratic hope in 2020 is Phil Murphy.

You’ll know him real soon. Tuesday, he gets sworn in as Governor of New Jersey.

But Murphy has the personal wealth (he’s a former Goldman Sachs executive), the street cred (as President Obama’s Ambassador to Germany) and the fertile ground (Hillary Clinton beat Donald Trump by 13 points) to use the Garden State as a launching pad for his sense of progressive nirvana.

That nirvana? California! Murphy wants to make New Jersey into the next California.

That’s right. The state with the highest poverty rate in the nation, according to the Census Bureau. (How does your state compare? Go to page 27 of this fascinating Census report.)

So when Murphy says he sees California as a “model” to emulate, New Jersey residents in the know say “Uh-oh.”

And if they’re really smart they’ll say “U-Haul.”

California’s generous safety-net programs appear to have made poverty worse, according to local, mainstream-media coverage of the lowlights there including:

  • 55% of immigrant families (but only 30% of “native” families) receive some sort of means-tested benefits;
  • A sanctuary state;
  • restrictive land-use (anti-development) policies driving up the cost of housing; and
  • a welfare bureaucracy employing nearly one million people, many of whom might lose their jobs if their “customers” were to graduate off the dependency trap.

Murphy says he will “pursue creative reactions” and possibly challenge in court policies like the Republican tax bill recently signed by President Trump. But he also claims the “only thing we’ve promised is a stronger and fairer economy in this state,”  and quickly adds “that includes for organized labor.”

Whoa! Wait, what’s that? Did I hear a “fairer economy”? (This is when the unnecessary adjective warning goes off, heralding the addition of an adjective acting as an antonym for the word it’s modifying.)

But if the solution is the California-model of social services, there appears to be no end to the downward spiral of higher taxes, more poverty . . . and the public-sector Gravy Train grows and grows, gets longer and longer.

For Murphy, that may not be a bug, but a feature. That’s because there’s a tipping point, where there are simply enough Gravy Train passengers and beneficiaries (recipients and government employees, sometimes they’re both) that if they all get out and vote, the tax-and-spend-more progressives will win, no matter what.

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Democrats

Rich Lowry on Dick Durbin’s desire to make a DACA deal work

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Rich Lowry on Dick Durbins desire to make a DACA deal work

Based upon Senator Dick Durbin’s actions the last few days regarding President Trump’s “s***hole” comments, one would think his intention was to derail talks and have a valid reason to blame Republicans in general and Trump in particular. If he really wanted a DACA deal, wouldn’t he have handled it differently?

JD Rucker had some thoughts on this:

Trump was wrong to say what he said. Durbin was wrong to reveal it.

http://noqreport.com/2018/01/12/trump-wrong-say-said-durbin-wrong-reveal/Durbin crossed that line. He took comments that paint the entire country through the President himself in a way that harms our ability to work with other nations. He wasn’t championing the nations Trump spoke out about. He had a single intention: harm.

Will this help with negotiations? Possibly, but at what cost?

National Review’s Rich Lowry wasn’t quite as accusatory, but he did question Durbin’s motives and whether or not he really wanted to make a DACA deal happen. Perhaps he was just greatly offended. Then again, perhaps he was just being a politician. Here’s Lowry’s quote:

“Everyone seems to think that Durbin really wants a deal, which makes it weird that he has gone out of his way to blow up the s***hole meeting.”

Read all of his comments:

Trump’s “Shithole” Comments, DACA & Political Fallout

http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/455430/trump-shithole-comments-daca-political-falloutOne benefit of a merit-based system is that it would move us away from special ethnic pleading in immigration policy. The visa lottery began as affirmative action for Irish immigrants. My understanding is that Dick Durbin said in the meeting that he wanted to preserve the visa lottery in a slightly changed form because the Congressional Black Caucus wanted it. This is not how we should be making decisions about who comes here and who doesn’t.

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