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The most important races of 2018: Part 2

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The most important races of 2018 Part 2

This article on the 2018 election will largely focus on which races impact political parties and movements the most. In Part 1, the races that were deemed most important were determined on their ability to put fourth strong candidates whether conservative or liberal. And so we saw a lot of Senate races such as the Missouri Senate race that has has the chance to send the next Rand Paul to DC. This is a more difficult metric to explain. Part 2 has a greater focus on races that will impact elections to come. Consequentially, we will see fewer Senate races than in Part 1 and more gubernatorial races. Part 2 focuses more on local control and state party ambitions that ultimately effect national party politics.

Governor – Maryland

While Maryland is a deep blue state, this race is a rare must-win for Democrats. The consequences of losing are great, potentially lasting decades. Confusing? Every ten years the US conducts a census. After 2010, Governor Martin O’Malley gerrymandered Maryland even more. And Marylanders, being uninformed, voted in favor of the redistricting in 2012. Democrats used gerrymandering to acquire a stranglehold on Maryland politics. The bicameral state legislature are two glorified houses, as the Maryland Senate isn’t actually a Senate. Maryland, I would argue, is the most gerrymandered state in the country.

No, Maryland is not the most gerrymandered state. There is ...

Maryland congressional districts however are designed to maintain this stranglehold mixing different regions into the same district just to limit Republicans to D-1 which they made more Republican. Governor Hogan won the governorship in 2014 on a limited issues campaign. Marylanders didn’t want to knowingly vote for continued increase in taxes. Larry Hogan wanted to redraw the district lines but the legislature refused him, so he needs to get reelected to have a chance at redrawing the lines or wait for the SCOTUS to act in his favor on the issue. In redrawing the lines he could not only, ungerrymander Maryland from a congressional standpoint but also from a legislative standpoint. As previously stated, the Maryland Senate is a second House of Delegates. The democrats masterfully hold a super majority in Annapolis and can override a veto. Hogan could redraw the district lines to take away this supermajority thus making Maryland a more fairly represented state. Republicans can expect at very least one Congressmen if Hogan succeeds.

In opposition, Democrats have various candidates in a slow but soon to heat up primary battle. It’s a tough race for them as Hogan is well-liked.

US Senate – West Virginia

West Virginia is a very blue collar state. Once upon a time, Democrats championed the blue collar working class. As noted by Glenn Beck, Democrats have abandoned this in favor of identity politics, a strategy that has lost them several seats. Still Virginia in 2012 reelected their likable Joe Manchin. West Virginia elected Manchin and Capito with over 60% of the vote on election day. Likability and authenticity matter in West Virginia more than other places. That being said, they love Trump there, and Manchin’s opposition to Trump puts his seat at risk.

The two most serious contenders are Evan Jenkins and Patrick Morrisey. Morrisey was Bannon-backed and has been called on by Jenkins to disavow the his support. This should be a heated primary battle but the steaks are high for both parties in this race. If the Democrats lose, it could be because their brand is so tainted on a national level. This could cost them a Senate seat for decades to come. If the Republicans win, they can more easily hold on to for decades. All it takes is authenticity and a seriously tainted Democrat brand. Democrats losing this race would signal their loss of support among regular working class people, something, if they are smart, would not want to lose.

Governor – New Hampshire

On a state level, New Hampshire is a battleground between Republicans and Democrats. During a presidential election, it narrowly votes Democratic. This battle is a test of party strength and organization. The blue patch that is the north east could see a red fungus emerge and spread to Maine and Vermont. That fungus could be New Hampshire. This race leans in favor of Chris Sununu being reelected. If successful, New Hampshire could become a red state in years to come, especially as Democrats revert to a more identity politics strategy. I would argue that identity politics is not a winning strategy in a state that is 93% white. It’s an ambitious task to make New Hampshire red but well worth it to break the Democrat monotony in the north, especially as these states are sending some of the most liberal candidates to DC.

Statewide – Texas

The Census is just around the corner and it looks like Texas stands to gain the most representation in Congress. Texas could see two or even three new representatives for the 2022 elections. In Texas, the state legislature is tasked with drawing district lines. Republicans hold firm grip on Texas, and that is unlikely to change. Governor Abbott will likely be reelected, but will Democrats make enough gains in the state legislature to disrupt the redistricting? Likely not. Still, the possibility of three new districts should make Texas a priority for Republican/ Conservative. The “Blue Wave” will likely be shortlived, if it even exists, partially due to reapportionment among states.

Statewide – Florida

In keeping with the theme discussed in Texas, Florida also stands to be the benefactor of reapportionment among states. They stand to gain one or two. In Florida, the legislature draws both the Congressional and state legislative districts. Only the Congressional lines are subject to Governor veto. Now this isn’t an argument in favor of gerrymandering. In fact, as noted by MCIMaps, Florida’s current map is more fair than the prior. But with an extra district, the question arises as to how to divide Florida’s population as evenly as possible.

2016-cp1-representation

While redistricting may not result in a GOP gain, the GOP should be invested in maintaining a swing state that Trump won especially as Democrats alienate themselves with middle America. The Democratic hold on minorities, specifically hispanics isn’t nearly as strong ballot-down as evident in D-26 and D-27. Republicans hold a key advantage and should seek invest heavily in turning this swing state red.

US Senate – Tennessee

The Washington Post published an article entitled “The Democratic Party is basically on life support in these 10 states” where it explains that the GOP dominates ten states on an extreme level. Tennessee is one of those states. The Democrats may, however, have a savior in Tennessee. As noted by NOQ’s Paige Rogers, this race is winnable for Democrats:

How popular is Phil Bredesen? He secured his second term as governor winning 100% of the counties in Tennessee. So, then, what might his odds of be at winning a Senate seat? Consider a 2011 Nashville poll. Bob Corker was currently running for re-election (2012 election cycle) to the Senate. The poll sought to weigh the odds of a hypothetical contest between the then-outgoing governor (Phil Bredesen) and the current Senator Bob Corker for Corker’s own Senate seat. The poll’s sampled voters chose Phil Bredesen over Bob Corker by 46 to 41 percent. Given voters’ overall distrust of career Republicans, a distrust to which Bob Corker undoubtedly contributed, coupled with Bredesen’s authenticity and conservative record, he may very well be the golden ticket.

Although this race also fits the metric used in Part 1, the distress the Democrats face in Tennessee makes this race important on both metrics. Democrats ought to skip the primary and throw all their chips in with Bredesen.

US Senate – North Dakota

This seat is held by Democrat Heidi Heitkamp in a state where, like Tennessee, the Democrats are also on life support. For Democrats, this seat is sort of a must win, if they want to keep a foothold in middle America and North Dakota. The GOP on the other hand would like to stick a fork in their opposition and this seat presents the best way to accomplish that in North Dakota. Heitkamp is well funded going into this race signalling that her supporters see the dire situation as well. States that voted Trump are somewhat hostile territory for liberal Senators. The GOP is much more organized and dominant on a local and state level which goes to show just how bad 2012 was for them. To Conservatives, this is one of several races to correct the Romney-Republican errors. To Democrats, it’s about not being pushed into New York and California. Heitkamp is one of their most winnable contests in Trump states come 2018 election. They really cannot afford to lose especially as the Senate is priming for Conservatives. For Democrats, this is a must win.

 

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Culture and Religion

Video: So, You Think You’re Tolerant?

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Leftists like to fancy themselves as being tolerant and Liberal, but they fall way short in both qualities.

Leftists will tell you that they are the most tolerant people who have ever lived, they will also scream at you for being a racist, xenophobic troglodyte if you happen to mention that you’re a conservative. They are supposedly ‘Liberal’, being in favour of Liberty while demanding it’s polar opposite – socialism.

Yes, if there is one constant in the universe, its that Leftists cannot be honest about who they truly are. This is what we love about our wonderful opponents on the nation’s socialist Left, for they are nothing like another group that went by the same nomenclature who also screamed at people in the streets with the motto: Common Good Before Individual Good. [Gemeinnutz vor Eigennutz]

But let’s not talk about the epithets they project on their enemies, let’s talk about how they get along with everyone who just happens to agree with everything they say. A new PragerU video featuring Dave Rubin of The Rubin Report looked at who is really tolerant. He is a true Liberal that discovered that it is actually the Pro-Liberty Right that is more tolerant, go figure.

Dave Rubin
Jul 9, 2018
Are you tolerant? You probably think so. But who is tolerant in America today? Is it those on the left, or those on the right? In this video, Dave Rubin of The Rubin Report analyzes this question and shares his experience.

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Democrats

Trump celebrates the victory of a Democratic Socialist to feed his ego

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Following Tuesday’s primary races, Donald Trump tweeted his glee after ten-term NY Rep. Joe Crowley—a Democrat many thought would replace Nancy Pelosi as the party’s leader in the House—lost his primary race to a Bernie Sanders supporter, Democratic Socialist Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.

Besides proving himself to be a textbook narcissistic sociopath, Trump’s happiness concerning Crowley’s misfortune misses the point that the Democratic Socialist movement within the Democrat party is on the rise.

Back in January, Louis Farrakhan’s favorite Democrat and the Deputy Chair of the Democratic National Committee Keith Ellison (MN) praised the work of the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) and its positive impact on the Democrat party—even adopting parts of the DSA agenda into the Democrat party platform.

In the May 16 primaries, we witnessed four openly Socialist candidates supported by the DSA win their campaigns in Pennsylvania state House races. Since three of the four winners are running unopposed in November, the DSA is guaranteed to be victorious.

With New York’s 14th Congressional District leaning Democrat +29, Ocasio-Cortez is also assured of winning her race in November, meaning that Socialism will have another voice in Washington.

There are those who will argue that the DSA will fail to advance its agenda because it’s too extreme, but recent evidence would appear to contradict that claim. For example, Bernie Sanders nearly beat Hillary in 2016—losing to her due to rules that rigged the primary in her favor—while running on a platform chock-full of socialist ideas.

By the way, some of Bernie’s socialist ideas were adopted by Trump.

With Bernie’s run for President and victories like Ocasio-Cortez’s under its belt, the DSA is experiencing dramatic growth. Since the 2016 election, nationwide membership has increased from 5,000 to 40,000, with 1152 of those members joining the day after the NY primary.

Younger voters are embracing socialism in ever-increasing numbers. According to a November 2017 report by the Victims of Communism Memorial Foundation, nearly half of millennials (44 percent) polled at the time preferred socialism to capitalism.
It’ somewhat fashionable, even more so in the age of Trump, to laugh at Democrats when they show their socialist colors, but with conservatives also embracing parts of socialism, Democratic Socialists could have the last laugh as we quickly approach the day of becoming the United Socialist States of America.

Ronald Reagan once warned, “Freedom is a fragile thing and is never more than one generation away from extinction. It is not ours by inheritance; it must be fought for and defended constantly by each generation, for it comes only once to a people. Those who have known freedom and then lost it have never known it again.”

It looks like that generation is here.

Originally posted on The Strident Conservative.

 


David Leach is the owner of The Strident Conservative. His daily radio commentary is distributed by the Salem Radio Network and is heard on stations across America.

Follow the Strident Conservative on Twitter and FacebookSubscribe to receive podcasts of radio commentaries: iTunes | Stitcher | Tune In | RSS

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Democrats

High-Speed Rail: Incompetent & corrupt bureaucrats

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The California train-to-nowhere has proven once again that incompetent bureaucrats run California. In a recent article by the Fresno Bee, these incompetent bureaucrats have to tear down a bridge that they are building due to safety issues. And the Fresno Bee rightfully states:

how do we know if anything it has built is safe?. If the rail authority can’t build in the flat lands of the valley, how can they be expected to build safely in the seismic areas of Los Angeles and the San Francisco Bay Area?

This could have been prevented, and one person that could have stopped this boondoggle is the incumbent Controller and my opponent Betty Yee. Unfortunately, Betty Yee is not interested in protecting taxpayers but protecting her political backers that have filled her campaign war chest with over a million dollars in contributions.

The Controller must protect the taxpayer, and that is why the Controller has independent audit authority and can cut funding when a project or program doesn’t comply with the law; which the HSR project doesn’t comply with Prop. 1A funding parameters requiring 1/3 from the federal government, 1/3 for private investment, and 1/3 from the state.

As Controller, I will investigate and audit this project to expose the waste, fraud, abuse, and corruption and will stop payments until the project complies with the law.

Almost four years in office she has done nothing to protect taxpayers. She has failed to do her job, so much so, that the federal government has begun an audit investigation into this project.

We can’t afford four more years of Betty Yee. It is time to replace her and elect Konstantinos Roditis as California’s next State Controller.


Konstantinos Roditis is a candidate for California State Controller. You can learn more about his campaign at cacontroller.com, and you can follow him on Twitter & Facebook.

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