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52% of Americans are politically irrelevant



Donald J. Trump is the President of the United States. But which Americans does he really care about? If you think it’s his super-duper-hardcore-die-hard supporters, I contest that you are 100% wrong.

Don’t misunderstand — I’m sure he likes them well enough, he’s probably grateful to them, and in a way he relies on them to give him a good public image when he gives rallies and such, but that’s not what I’m talking about. When Donald Trump is trying to decide what to do and whom to please, his adoring fans are NOT his target audience. In fact, I’d go so far as to say that Trump isn’t worried about how a majority of his voters feel about him — even a majority of the country.

Now how can that be? Doesn’t he want to keep up his approval rating? Of course, but if you want your numbers to go up, you have to know which crowd deserves your attention.

I’ve previously discussed public opinion of Trump and the lack of accountability in government — now it’s time to combine the two.

Regarding public opinion, I addressed a recent poll which shows that 60% of Trump voters, or roughly 24% of Americans, claim that there is nothing the president could possibly do or not do to lose their support. Contrariwise, short of resigning, 28% of voters can’t think of anything Trump could possibly do or not do in order to gain their favor. That means that there are 52% of Americans whose votes are set and nothing Trump can say or do will change their minds.

That 52% is now totally irrelevant to the political conversation.

Back in 2012, Mitt Romney caught significant backlash for his comments that “there are 47% of the people who will vote for the president no matter what. … And so my job is to not worry about those people.” This is the classic case of something that is true but you should never say it, particularly when you’re running for president. Everyone knows that you never say that the dress makes your wife look fat, that your child’s recital sounded like a wounded animal, that your newborn baby looks slightly abnormal, or that half of your potential voters view themselves as victims and are dependent on government. These are just the basic axioms of life.

But, Romney was absolutely right. He had no chance of winning over those voters, so he had to focus on middle America — not geographically but ideologically.

So for us, this means that Trump only cares about pleasing 48% of Americans. And whoever runs against him in 2020 will have the exact same strategy. 28% are guaranteed to vote against Trump, and 24% are pledged to vote for him, so why bother with either group?

This is simple campaign strategy, but it has intensely negative implications when it comes to accountability while in office.

Many have expressed concern with Trump’s failure to deliver on key campaign promises, most notably Ann Coulter, who went from authoring In Trump We Trust to calling his tenure “a nightmare” after his showing no success in negotiating, passing a solid budget, or building the legendary (soon to be mythological) wall.

But through it all, Trump doesn’t seem to care. And to be honest, that’s probably because he doesn’t. He doesn’t necessarily need to deliver on those promises in order to stay in power, which is all that matters to him (and most politicians).

Does the 24% crowd want a wall? Sure! But who cares? If not enough of the 48% want it, then there’s no wall, and his base still won’t abandon him. Will he please the 28% by bloating entitlement programs and stumping for universal healthcare? Probably not. But who cares? Whatever a majority of the 48% want, that’s what Trump will do. Same story for the Democratic candidate. Same for your congressman. That’s just how politics works.

If you’re hoping for Trump to keep (or break) his promises, he needs to know that enough people want him to. He’s looking to please 26% + 1, and whoever gets his attention will guide the agenda.

Richie Angel is a Co-Editor in Chief of The New Guards. Follow him and The New Guards on Twitter, and check out The New Guards on Facebook.

Richie Angel is a Co-Editor in Chief of The New Guards, Co-Host of The New Guards Podcast, lifelong fan of the Anaheim Ducks, and proud Hufflepuff. He graduated Magna Cum Laude in English from Brigham Young University in 2017. One day later, his wife gave birth to a beautiful daughter. Richie is a constitutional conservative and doesn't see any compassion in violating other people's rights.

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New Jersey’s new governor sees California as progressive model



New Jerseys new governor sees California as progressive model

The next great progressive Democratic hope in 2020 is Phil Murphy.

You’ll know him real soon. Tuesday, he gets sworn in as Governor of New Jersey.

But Murphy has the personal wealth (he’s a former Goldman Sachs executive), the street cred (as President Obama’s Ambassador to Germany) and the fertile ground (Hillary Clinton beat Donald Trump by 13 points) to use the Garden State as a launching pad for his sense of progressive nirvana.

That nirvana? California! Murphy wants to make New Jersey into the next California.

That’s right. The state with the highest poverty rate in the nation, according to the Census Bureau. (How does your state compare? Go to page 27 of this fascinating Census report.)

So when Murphy says he sees California as a “model” to emulate, New Jersey residents in the know say “Uh-oh.”

And if they’re really smart they’ll say “U-Haul.”

California’s generous safety-net programs appear to have made poverty worse, according to local, mainstream-media coverage of the lowlights there including:

  • 55% of immigrant families (but only 30% of “native” families) receive some sort of means-tested benefits;
  • A sanctuary state;
  • restrictive land-use (anti-development) policies driving up the cost of housing; and
  • a welfare bureaucracy employing nearly one million people, many of whom might lose their jobs if their “customers” were to graduate off the dependency trap.

Murphy says he will “pursue creative reactions” and possibly challenge in court policies like the Republican tax bill recently signed by President Trump. But he also claims the “only thing we’ve promised is a stronger and fairer economy in this state,”  and quickly adds “that includes for organized labor.”

Whoa! Wait, what’s that? Did I hear a “fairer economy”? (This is when the unnecessary adjective warning goes off, heralding the addition of an adjective acting as an antonym for the word it’s modifying.)

But if the solution is the California-model of social services, there appears to be no end to the downward spiral of higher taxes, more poverty . . . and the public-sector Gravy Train grows and grows, gets longer and longer.

For Murphy, that may not be a bug, but a feature. That’s because there’s a tipping point, where there are simply enough Gravy Train passengers and beneficiaries (recipients and government employees, sometimes they’re both) that if they all get out and vote, the tax-and-spend-more progressives will win, no matter what.

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Rich Lowry on Dick Durbin’s desire to make a DACA deal work



Rich Lowry on Dick Durbins desire to make a DACA deal work

Based upon Senator Dick Durbin’s actions the last few days regarding President Trump’s “s***hole” comments, one would think his intention was to derail talks and have a valid reason to blame Republicans in general and Trump in particular. If he really wanted a DACA deal, wouldn’t he have handled it differently?

JD Rucker had some thoughts on this:

Trump was wrong to say what he said. Durbin was wrong to reveal it. crossed that line. He took comments that paint the entire country through the President himself in a way that harms our ability to work with other nations. He wasn’t championing the nations Trump spoke out about. He had a single intention: harm.

Will this help with negotiations? Possibly, but at what cost?

National Review’s Rich Lowry wasn’t quite as accusatory, but he did question Durbin’s motives and whether or not he really wanted to make a DACA deal happen. Perhaps he was just greatly offended. Then again, perhaps he was just being a politician. Here’s Lowry’s quote:

“Everyone seems to think that Durbin really wants a deal, which makes it weird that he has gone out of his way to blow up the s***hole meeting.”

Read all of his comments:

Trump’s “Shithole” Comments, DACA & Political Fallout benefit of a merit-based system is that it would move us away from special ethnic pleading in immigration policy. The visa lottery began as affirmative action for Irish immigrants. My understanding is that Dick Durbin said in the meeting that he wanted to preserve the visa lottery in a slightly changed form because the Congressional Black Caucus wanted it. This is not how we should be making decisions about who comes here and who doesn’t.

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Emoji loving Manning running for Senate



After getting off early in the eleventh hour of Obama’s presidency, Manning became an “activist” taking on and getting roasted by many conservatives on Twitter, most memorably, Ben Shapiro. Now he’s filed for a Senate run for Ben Cardin’s seat in Maryland. This would be Manning stepping up to the big leagues of politics for sure.

It’s somewhat similar to Austin Petersen in Missouri, in that we have someone who has built up a social media following prior to launching a high profile campaign. This strategy definitely worked for Trump, among other things, but we await how social media darlings perform in campaigns.

However, this is also possible battle in the Democrat civil war between the Old Party and the Socialists. In The Most Important Races of 2018: Part 1, one of the elections mentioned was the Illinois District 3 race because one of the most moderate pro-life Democrats was being challenged by the pro-abortion and far more leftist Marrie Newman.

This was the first instance of a very formidable leftist challenging a Democrat for not being socialist enough. Manning, whatever his first name is these days, is on the side of Socialist for in the potential intra-party civil war. He is on the Colin Kaepernick, Linda Sarsour, and perhaps Bernie Sanders level.

This looks like it could be battle number two but Ben Cardin is a rock solid product of the Maryland Democrat machine. So in a way, this seems like two liberal going at it but key differences in policies are likely to be found in the area of foreign policy and dealing with Trump.

Being transgender isn’t enough to win a seat in liberal Maryland. The seriousness of Manning will largely depend on his finances.  Maryland seats are so easy to win by Democrats because of how blue the state is and the heavy gerrymandering for the House districts. So when a new seat opens up in Maryland, Democrats invest loads of money to fight for the easy to retain seat.

Thus David Trone spent 10 million losing a House primary in 2016 while Chris Van Hollen spent enormous amounts of money to win his Senate Primary (he was trying to upgrade from the House to the Senate because Barbara Mikulski was retiring). Both of these high dollar primaries were for open seats, so if Manning wants to primary Ben Cardin, he will need a lot of money.

Maryland is Democrat because of its proximity to the Federal government. There are tons of government workers and contractors in Maryland, and several companies where workers need security clearances. Odds are the convicted intel thief isn’t going to get off so easy with voters just because he put lipstick on. It will also be interesting to see Manning’s ability to win the black vote because Bernie Sanders failed to beat Hillary in this category despite being BLM and beyond.

Lastly, it Manning’s likability among independents will also make or break him. Maryland has closed primaries so they won’t be able to stop him if Democrats abandon long-time Senator Cardin.

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Final Thoughts

Republican nominees have their rallying cry. Cardin could be deposed or simply step aside to let the young man take his place and retire at 75. If Manning becomes the nominee, the race just became watchable. In the past, Republican efforts to take the seat have been pitiful, to say the least, but Manning is likely an amateur at campaigning and a polarizing figure, to put it mildly. He lacks experience and has a criminal record. So GOP might have a chance to steal this seat for six years. One thing is for certain: this Senate race just got interesting.

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