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Rep. Mia Love’s best strategy in Utah is to do nothing

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Utah may be a traditionally red state, but that mostly applies to the presidency. While true that a Republican currently sits in each of the state’s federal offices, that comes more easily to some congressional districts than others.

Utah’s 4th District stands out as the Beehive State’s biggest congressional anomaly for a number of reasons, including close races, odd voter turnout, and recent start-up. The 4th District held its first elections in 2012, 30 years after the creation of the 3rd District, and it is the only one of Utah’s districts to begin with a Democratic representative in office.

Current Representative Mia Love (R) ran in that initial race, losing to Democrat Jim Matheson by 0.3%, or just over 750 votes out of more than 245,000. Love tried her luck again in 2014 following Matheson’s retirement, and this time she bested her Democratic opponent, Doug Owens, by a slightly better margin of 50.9% to 45.8%. Still, in a state with congressional spreads averaging around 65-70% Republican over 25-30% Democrat in recent years, that’s not a comfortable lead by any means. Even more interestingly, the 2014 election turned out only 147,000 voters, 98,000 fewer than the previous election. Owens challenged Love to a rematch in 2016, faring slightly worse with a loss of 53.8% to 41.3%, voter turnout skyrocketing to 274,500.

Love’s victory wasn’t a blowout, but it followed projections. Ballotpedia had marked her seat as “Lean R” according to two leading polls, contrasted with each of her fellow Utah representatives, ranked “Solid R” and “Safe R” based on the same polls. Predictions for her contemporaries in the 2018 election have remained consistent, but this time Love’s base has increased, improving to “Safe R” and “Likely R” — not quite as assured as other Utah Republicans, but certainly closer to their league.

And now, to capitalize on this promising field position, what should Love do if she wants to win in 2018? As little as possible. Basically nothing. Not to say that this plan helps her constituents, but it’s her best bet to retain her seat, and she’s delivering quite nicely. To win in Utah, you need three things: be a Republican, stay in the middle, and remain so invisible that everyone forgets you exist and they just vote for the incumbent.

Utah voters are only subconsciously looking for items two and three, but they’re very aware of their search for number one: Republicans. As we learned in 2016, Utah doesn’t like Trump, but it voted for pro-Trump congressmen at precisely the same rate it voted for never-Trump congressmen. As long as you’re a Republican in the general election, you’ll probably win. And no one has announced their intent to primary Love in 2018.

That said, as I’ve previously opined, Utah is drifting to port; being Republican is only half the battle now. If Love wants to pull out a win, she has to anchor herself somewhere in the middle and stay there. Again, she’s sticking to that plan. She talks like a Republican but votes like a Democrat; she voted for the AHCA, which Democrats and Republicans both disliked for very different reasons, placing her in the crossfire but away from politically hazardous extremes; her Conservative Review Liberty Score is 50%, the lowest of any Utah representative in the House and obviously right in the middle.

Might this only upset both sides? Not really. For Democrats, a 50% Republican is a Republican they can stomach. For Republicans, a 50% Republican is still better than a Democrat. Playing both sides results in a net gain of zero, so it’s essentially the same as doing nothing. And as long as Love isn’t too public about her inactivity, she can get away with it. It’s all about keeping up appearances.

Love steps into the spotlight exactly as often as she needs to do and says exactly what she needs to — she campaigned with the Tea Party initially before settling into moderate politics once elected; she spoke at a rally against hatred following the Charlottesville terrorist attack by a white supremacist; she speaks out regularly in opposition to abortion but approved a budget placing no restrictions on Planned Parenthood in order to avoid a government shutdown. Love famously refuses to hold town hall meetings, preferring personal office interviews with her constituents. But as one writer suggests, this actually results in far less interaction with voters and prevents Love from hearing the collective voice of her district. That might be true, but one-on-one chats with voters seems like a more involved approach, so it works in Love’s favor.

Then she shrinks back to Incumbent Land, where you have a 97% chance of reelection as long as you don’t do anything extremely stupid.

Like I said, to win in Utah, you need three things: be a Republican, toe the line, and stay out of the public eye. Love is hitting the mark on all three. Is that the most helpful approach for improving our country? Not in the slightest, but who said that was Congress’s plan?

Richie Angel is a Co-Editor in Chief of The New Guards. Follow him and The New Guards on Twitter, and check out The New Guards on Facebook.

Culture and Religion

Elizabeth Warren releases DNA proof that she’s at least 1/1024th Native American. Twitter responds appropriately.

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Elizabeth Warren releases DNA proof that shes at least 11024th Native American Twitter responds appr

There’s a strategist in Senator Elizabeth Warren’s ear who thought it was a good idea to release results of a DNA test showing a likelihood that one of her very distant descendants was Native American. The advice taken. The results were predictable.

The test shows she is at most 1/32nd Native American if she is six generations from her Native American ancestor. That’s her best-case scenario. At worst, her ancestor was as far back as ten generations which would make her 1/1024th Native American. To put that into perspective, if she were to honor her heritage by engaging in 1/1024th of a four-hour Native American Sweat, she’d be in and out of the lodge in 14 seconds.

Elizabeth Warren releases results of DNA test on Native American ancesty

https://www.bostonglobe.com/news/politics/2018/10/15/warren-addresses-native-american-issue/YEUaGzsefB0gPBe2AbmSVO/story.htmlThe inherent imprecision of the six-page DNA analysis could provide fodder for Warren’s critics. If her great-great-great-grandmother was Native American, that puts her at 1/32nd American Indian. But the report includes the possibility that she’s just 1/1024th Native American if the ancestor is 10 generations back.

Undergoing the test and releasing the results reveal how seriously Warren is taking the attacks from Trump, who has been able to effectively caricature and diminish his national foes via nicknames and conspiracy theories. Trump pushed then President Barack Obama into releasing the long form of his birth certificate to prove what most knew was already true: He was born in America.

This publicity stunt was designed to let everyone know she’s serious about running for President in 2020. She wanted to be able to call out President Trump on his promise to give $1,000,000 to charity if she could prove Native American heritage. He won’t pay, of course, which will get plenty of headlines calling him a deal-breaking scoundrel, but was it really if for her to be the focus of even more jokes on social media?

Here are some of the reactions on Twitter. You decide:

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Democrats

5 takeaways from the 2020 Democratic hopefuls poll

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When the outrage about Obamacare prompted many Republican lawmakers to book trips to Iowa in 2010 and 2011, the field was decent with Rudy Giuliani, Fred Thompson, and Newt Gingrich making the most waves early. Following the 2014 midterms, new faces popped up and it appeared the GOP would have an embarrassment of riches with Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz, and Rand Paul being the stalwart newcomers who would rejuvenate the party before the ultimate newcomer hit the scene.

The Democratic Party is lost. This is apparent when you look at the results of a CNN poll released today:

2020 Democratic Presidential Candidates

In their quest to find the next Barack Obama, the best Democrats can do right now is tap his 75-year-old running mate. The former Vice President will be 17 days from his 78th birthday when election day rolls around in 2020. That says a lot and leads our list of five takeaways from this early poll.

Here they are:

1 – A 77-year-old white guy is the top choice for a party that blames “old white guys” for all the nation’s problems

Wouldn’t it be ironic if they did nominate Biden? Every day we hear in mainstream media from leftist pundits how just about every problem can be blamed on an ancient Caucasian patriarchy that needs to be booted from power. Yet, they seem to favor the epitome of the ancient Caucasian patriarchy in Biden.

He seems to be as healthy and mentally sharp as anyone could expect after three quarters of a century. Many have speculated that he would be President today had he thrown his hat in the ring as so many Democrats wanted in 2016.

Despite the enthusiasm behind him, I find it extremely unlikely, nearing the realm of impossibility, that Biden will end up running, let alone becoming the nominee. He’s simply the most recognized name right now among the Democrats. Of course, we could also make the same observations about the second name on the list, Senator Bernie Sanders, who is a year older than Biden.

2 – Spartacus isn’t making an impact yet

Only 1 in 20 Democrats polled want to see Senator Cory “Spartacus” Booker as the nominee. As an eloquent African-American Senator from a left-leaning state, he draws the easiest surface-level comparisons to President Obama.

So far, those surface comparisons haven’t put him on the Democrats’ map. That is likely to change as he seems to be one of the most aggressive early campaigners. He used his time questioning Justice Brett Kavanaugh from the Senate Judiciary Committee to get nomination face time, but so far that hasn’t resulted in much additional name or face recognition. It’s early and he will likely be a frontrunner, but at least for now he’s still nowhere.

3 – 4% want Beto O’Rourke who is about to lose his Senate race

When the next sessions on Capitol Hill start, Representative Beto O’Rourke will likely be sitting on his couch still trying to figure out what went wrong. He had support from celebrities. Leftist magazines pointed to him as the next JFK. He raised more funds than any Senate candidate in history.

Unless something crazy happens, he’s going to lose big to Senator Ted Cruz.

It would seem his national popularity is greater than his Texas popularity. Losing doesn’t eliminate him altogether; Rick Santorum lost a couple of elections before coming in second for the 2012 GOP nomination. Still, it wouldn’t behoove the Democrats to push O’Rourke to run against President Trump if he can’t even beat Senator Cruz.

4 – Some actually take Michael Avennati seriously

The fact that lawyer Michael Avenatti is on the list is ridiculous. The fact that 1% of Democrats want to see him run is hilarious.

If he’s the solution to the Democrats’ woes, they’re in much bigger trouble than anyone knows.

5 – Entertainers on not on the list, but should be

Looking into my crystal ball following President Trump’s victory in 2016, I saw a strange face pop up. The Democrat I thought could beat the President in 2020 is someone nobody is talking about. Actor George Clooney, who has been quietly feeling out donors since late 2016, is a name that will pop out of nowhere in 2019 if indeed he chooses to run for President.

Another name not on the list is Oprah Winfrey. It will all depend on whether she is serious about her ambition to change the world from the top down, but if she chooses to run, she’ll be the contrast to President Trump the Democrats would love to see.

Last but not least on my list of entertainers who could win the nomination is Dwayne Johnson. The Rock is extremely intelligent and outspoken, plus he is universally liked. If he were to win, could you imagine him and Vladimir Putin holding a summit?

With the midterm elections almost upon us, speculating about 2020 is a fun distraction. As backwards as Democrats have been this election cycle, the next one is shaping up to set records in lunacy.

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Democrats

#WalkAway: True Liberals have had enough of the Socialist-Left

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WalkAway True Liberals have had enough of the Socialist-Left

The true advocates of Liberty have had enough of the Left’s group-think, violence, vitriol, censorship, socialism, Marxism, and incivility.

The founder of the #Walkaway movement Brandon Straka has had enough of the Left and it’s liberticidal ways. In a recent video from the Daily Caller, he talked about how the Democrats Are Jumping Ship Over Kavanaugh Smear.

He says hundreds of people have reached out to him since the Justice Brett Kavanaugh battle started, and he began receiving more video testimonials and messages from people who say they will now vote Republican because of the smear campaign launched against Kavanaugh.

The #Walkaway march on Washington October 26-28

In addition to this he is leading a march on Washington to take place October 26-28, as reported in the Daily Wire.

Speakers for the event include Dinesh D’Souza, Stacey Dash, Joy Villa, Mason Weaver, Buzz Patterson, and others. Dave Rubin, Herman Cain, Tomi Lahren, and Antonio Sabato Jr. cannot attend in person, but have provided videotaped remarks.

Additional details can be found at WalkAwayMarch.com. Tickets for the dinner can be purchased at Eventbrite.

The official statement provided for the event is as follows:

The #WalkAway™ Campaign, founded by former liberal Brandon Straka, is a true grassroots movement. Until now, it has been a social media movement, dedicated to sharing the stories of people who can no longer accept the current ideology of liberalism and what the Democratic Party has become. Some left long ago, while many have recently been “red-pilled”. Some have wanted to leave for some time but have feared the consequences they might suffer from friends or family if they were to walk away. The Campaign’s membership currently exceeds 370,000 patriots on all social media platforms combined.

This is a movement of Patriots from all walks of life who share something very important in common. WE ARE ALL AMERICANS and we will not surrender our country to: group-think, identity politics, violence, vitriol, censorship, hysteria, fake news, race-baiting, corruption, socialism, marxism, and incivility.

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