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Why Russia won’t dare shoot at American planes

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Russia “warned” the U.S. that “Any aircraft, including planes and drones belonging to the international coalition operating west of the Euphrates river, will be tracked by Russian anti-aircraft forces in the sky and on the ground and treated as targets.”

This happened after a U.S. Navy F/A-18 downed a Syrian SU-22 bomber that attacked anti-Assad rebels in Raqqa province on Sunday. The Russians don’t like that their favored dictator is being attacked by U.S.-backed forces. To hell with ISIS, Russia considers Syria to be within its geographic sphere of influence.

As Streiff at RedState noted,

Note they say “tracked” as air targets, not “treat U.S.-led coalition planes in Syria, west of the Euphrates River, as targets.” Why is this significant? If Russian air defense systems “treated” allied aircraft as hostile that would entail “painting” them with fire control radar, an international sign of imminent hostilities. “Tracking” merely means allied aircraft will be coded on Russian battle management radar as hostile. They have probably been doing that since Day One.

But let’s move past weasel-words like “tracked” and “painted” and “treated.” The word “target” can mean a lot of things in the radar and military world. Just because something is a target doesn’t mean anyone is shooting. For example, right now, at this moment, the U.S. is targeting several Russian cities and military facilities with weapons of mass destruction. And the Russians are targeting us. That’s how deterrence works.

In reality, Russia wouldn’t dare shoot at us. Not on purpose, at least.

Just looking at the numbers answers the question before it’s even asked.

The U.S. has way more than double the number of fixed-wing aircraft than the Russians. We have 500 more fighters than Russia, with enough tankers to move them wherever in the world we want. Oh, and that’s just the Air Force. The Navy has another 300-odd F/A-18 Hornets and another 300+ F/A-18E/F Super Hornets.

And if things got really serious, we have scores of F-22A Raptors that can shoot any Russian aircraft out of the sky before they even had the chance to “target” it.

In short, the Russians would be insane to the point of suicidal to shoot at an American aircraft.

But let’s just assume for a moment that some mistake happened, some dude who imbibed a bit too much vodka pressed the wrong button and fired an S-300 or S-400 air defense battery at one of our planes. First of all, that scenario can’t happen unless American jets fly over known Russian bases near the Mediterranean.

The S-400 air-defense systems are located at Russia’s air base at Latakia and its naval base at Tartus. The strike, which hit the Shayrat air base near Homs more than 75 kilometers away from the city of Tartus and more than 120 kilometers from Latakia, meant the American cruise missiles were safely out of the Russian air-defense system’s effective range for cruise missiles, he said. “You can more or less defend a perimeter of about 40 kilometers.”

We fired a bunch of Tomahawks right under the nose of the Russian air defense systems and they never even activated. Of course, we told the Russians we were doing it, which is actually the other reason they wouldn’t shoot at us.

Just because they told us they’re treating our aircraft as “targets” doesn’t mean we’re going to stop telling them (“de-conflicting”) we’re coming when we go to deal with threats. If we tell them we’re sending aircraft to Raqqa province, they have a few choices. They can do nothing at all. They can tell whoever we are attacking to get away. Or they can try to defend against us.

The first option is almost certainly their best option. The second option will only lead to more aircraft and exposure of their intelligence assets. The third option will result in them losing some air defense batteries or fighter aircraft. The last thing the Russians want to do is advertise the fact that their systems can be defeated by the very American aircraft they were designed to defend against.

Unless they knew without a shadow of a doubt the engagement would come out in their favor (it wouldn’t), they’re not going to engage. I know the engagement would not come out in favor of the Russians because American pilots are well prepared and well trained to deal with Russian threats.

Israelis fly into Syrian airspace more often than you think, using American-made F-16’s, and only rarely (if at all) do they suffer any losses. American air assets are at least as good as Israel’s.

The first time a Russian battery goes into “acquisition” mode on an American jet, given the latest “warning,” it’s possible Americans will go “weapons free” and destroy the battery with anti-radiation missiles. That would be bad for the Russians.

The Russians are not stupid, and they won’t shoot at us. Or if they do, they’ll make it look like an accident and paint us as the bad guys. But I think they won’t dare.

Managing Editor of NOQ Report. Serial entrepreneur. Faith, family, federal republic. One nation, under God, indivisible, with liberty and justice for all.

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Politics

Hey, Jeff Flake! The GOP is already toast!

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Hey Jeff Flake The GOP is already toast

At a tax-reform event held in Arizona over the weekend, soon-to-be ex-Senator Jeff Flake was caught on a hot mic whining about the imminent death of the GOP. Speaking to his good friend, Mesa Mayor John Giles, Flake said “If we become the party of Roy Moore and Donald Trump, we are toast.”

Unfortunately for Flake, his analysis is a day late and a dollar short. The GOP has pretty much been toast ever since Ronald Reagan’s last day in office. That’s when RINOs took over the party and turned it over to big-government Republicans like George H. W. Bush, George W. Bush, Mitch McConnell, and John Boehner.

Ever since Ronnie rode off into the California sunset, conservative values have been relegated to the dustbin of broken campaign promises only to be conveniently brought out every election season to steal money and votes.

Flake’s statement is wrong for a few more reasons: Roy Moore is a threat to people like Flake because he is running against the establishment, and the GOP has already become the party of Donald Trump.

For example, before he decided to pass on re-election next year, polls showed Flake was already likely to lose in the primary to Kelli Ward, who’s running as a Trumplican. Trumplicanism has replaced conservatism as the new identity of the Republican Party as it embraces all things Trump under the mistaken belief that his populist brand of politics is what defines conservatism today.

This sad reality is a direct result of RINOs like Jeff Flake.

Ironically, Flake confirmed the importance of the conservative values he long abandoned with the release of his book earlier this year, “Conscience of a Conservative,” a title essentially plagiarized from a book written by the man credited with reigniting the conservative movement back in the 1960’s, Barry Goldwater.

Because it’s election season, Flake hoped his book could be a sort of get-out-of-RINO-jail-free card as he attempted to at least give the appearance that he was the conservative we all know he isn’t. But hey, if you’re going to write about something you know absolutely nothing about, steal the words of someone who did, right?

Jeff Flake blames everyone but himself and his fellow RINOs for the sorry state of the GOP, but these lying liars are fully responsible for the rise of Donald Trump and the Trumplican Party.

The good news is that the GOP is already toast. Let’s replace it with a true conservative party.

Originally posted on The Strident Conservative.

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News

Zimbabwe’s Robert Mugabe has agreed to resign. Update: He didn’t.

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Zimbabwes Robert Mugabe has agreed to resign source

Update

Once again, Zimbabwe President Robert Mugabe has defied calls for his resignation, allowing a deadline set by his party to pass without a word.

Zimbabwe crisis: Deadline passes for Mugabe to quit as party leader

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-42048412Members of Zimbabwe’s ruling Zanu-PF party are preparing to meet to discuss the possible impeachment of President Robert Mugabe, after a deadline for his resignation came and went on Monday.

The deadline was set by Mr Mugabe’s own party, Zanu-PF.

The embattled leader surprised Zimbabweans on Sunday, declaring on TV that he planned to remain as president.

Original Story

Reports came in yesterday that Zimbabwe’s President Robert Mugabe would be stepping down instead of going through impeachment, but in a speech on state-run television he did not step down. Now, a new report is coming in that he has agreed to step down, having drafted a resignation letter.

As has been the case for nearly four decades with the tyrannical strongman, reports about him are subject to change. ZANU-PF, the party that he led until yesterday afternoon when they removed him, have given him until noon today (5am EST) to resign or they will request impeachment. The parliament does not meet on Mondays, so if he doesn’t step down he likely won’t be tried until the next day.

Based upon information from a CNN source, the leader has reached an agreement that would give him full immunity and allow him to keep his possessions.

Further Reading

Source: Zimbabwe’s Mugabe agrees to terms of resignation

http://www.cnn.com/2017/11/20/africa/zimbabwe-mugabe/index.htmlAn official source with direct knowledge of negotiations says that Zimbabwe leader Robert Mugabe has agreed to the terms of his resignation and a letter has been drafted.

The source said generals had given into many of Mugabe’s demands including full immunity for himself and his wife Grace, and also that he would keep his private properties.

Zimbabwe’s Mugabe has until noon to stand down or face impeachment | Reuters

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-zimbabwe-politics/zimbabwes-mugabe-has-until-noon-to-stand-down-or-face-impeachment-idUSKBN1DK0H1?il=0Zimbabwe’s liberation war veterans, who have been among the most vocal in calling for Mugabe’s resignation, will hold a media briefing at 9.30 a.m.

Moments after Mugabe’s address, war veterans leader Chris Mutsvangwa told Reuters they would lead public protests in the streets of Harare, cranking up the pressure on Zimbabwe’s ruler of the last 37 years.

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Guns and Crime

Charles Manson is dead

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Charles Manson is dead

The satanic ringleader behind several gruesome murders in California in 1969, Charles Manson, has died of natural causes Sunday, one week after his birthday. He was 83.

Over a five-week period in the summer of 1969, Manson’s minions carried out nine murders attached to his orders. Even after his incarceration, as many as 35 murders were committed by members of his cult. Though Manson did not participate directly in the murders, his leadership of the cult that killed on his orders earned him the death penalty. His sentence was commuted to nine life sentences when California annulled death sentences issued before 1972. He was sentenced in 1971 and spent 46 years in jail, costing tax-payers millions of dollars.

Further Reading

Charles Manson, mastermind of 1969 murders, dies at 83

http://beta.latimes.com/local/obituaries/la-me-charles-manson-20171119-story.htmlManson did not commit the murders himself; instead he persuaded his group of followers to carry out the killings. The crimes received frenzied news coverage, because so many lurid and sensational elements coalesced at the time — Hollywood celebrity, cult behavior, group sex, drugs and savage murders that concluded with the killers scrawling words with their victims’ blood.

Los Angeles residents were terrified by the crimes. Before the killers were apprehended, gun sales and guard dog purchases skyrocketed and locksmiths had weeks-long waiting lists. Numerous off-duty police officers were hired to guard homes in affluent neighborhoods and security firms tripled in size.

Charles Manson is rotting in hell | New York Post

https://nypost.com/2017/11/20/mass-murderer-charles-manson-dead-at-83/Manson — who infamously wore a swastika tattoo between his eyebrows — had spent more than 45 years in prison after being convicted of directing his “Manson Family” clan of troubled, mostly female, followers to kill seven people in California in the summer of 1969. The dead included actress Sharon Tate, the pregnant wife of director Roman Polanski, who was stabbed 16 times.

“I am crime,” Manson proudly proclaimed during a collect call to The Post from prison in the mid-2000s.

Obituary: Charles Manson

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-36091052When his mother was paroled in 1942 she lived with her eight-year-old son in a series of dilapidated rooms before unsuccessfully applying to a court to have him fostered. Instead he was placed in a Catholic boys’ home from which he ran away after just 10 months.

Manson’s robbery of an off-licence marked the beginning of a series of crimes, including armed robbery, and subsequent incarcerations in a number of institutions.

Manson Family Murders Fast Facts

http://www.cnn.com/2013/09/30/us/manson-family-murders-fast-facts/index.htmlReportedly, during his childhood, Manson’s mother sold him for a pitcher of beer to a woman who wanted to have children. His uncle had to find the woman so that he could get his nephew back.

He later took his stepfather William Manson’s last name.

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